Joint evolution of irrigation, the water cycle and water resources under a strong climate change scenario from 1950 to 2100 in the IPSL-CM6

Abstract. Irrigation, a key activity for food security, uses local water resources to increase evapotranspiration, creating feedback loops with the atmosphere and water resources. With climate change, it is unclear how irrigation will evolve in the future and how it may influence the evolution of water resources and the water cycle. It is also unclear whether irrigation may be constrained by climate change or water resource shortages. Here, we compare two surface‒atmosphere simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6 model from 1950–2100: one with irrigation and one without irrigation. In both simulations, the evolutions of atmospheric radiative forcing, land use, and irrigated areas are taken from CMIP6, which uses a historical dataset for the data before 2014 and the SSP5-RCP8.5 dataset for data after 2014. The two simulations reveal strong global warming and precipitation increases between 1950–2000 and 2050–2100 average values (+5.6 °C and +8.1 %, on average, over land with irrigation). Over the same period, our results indicate an increase in irrigation (+76 % increase in irrigation in the 2050–2100 compared to the 1950–2000 period), which is in line with a significant expansion of irrigated areas. The influence of irrigation on evapotranspiration in irrigated areas is greater in 2050–2100 than in 1950‒2000 (+12 % vs. +8 %, respectively). Evapotranspiration has also been found to increase in non-irrigated areas near irrigated zones owing to an increase in precipitation under historical and future climate conditions. Water depletion due to irrigation is more intense in the future than in the historical period, although climate change increases water storages and river discharge due to more precipitation in the future. We also identified areas where future environmental conditions can limit irrigation or where irrigation can increase tensions over water use (approximately one-third of irrigated areas, including the Mediterranean basin, California, and Southeast Asia). Our results highlight the importance of considering irrigation in climate projections and future water resources assessments.