the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Detecting breakpoints in global temperature
Abstract. This paper aims to address the continuous debate of whether a hiatus
occurred in the turn of this century. Several models have been employed to fit the global mean surface temperature data, and the results suggest that the allegation of an occurrence of hiatus
lacks statistical evidence. However, these models had potential deficiencies in their capacity for detecting breakpoints, thereby weakening the arguments that deny the existence of a hiatus
. To address this issue, we propose an improved sparse representation model, which can automatically segment and fit temperature records using piecewise polynomials. Simulations revealed improved detection performance; studies on five prominent global temperature records produced 2 to 6 breakpoints, none of which occurred after the year 1976, thus reinforcing arguments denying the existence of a 20th century hiatus
.
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Interactive discussion
- RC1: 'Review of Detecting breakpoints in global temperature by Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Sep 2019
- RC2: 'Review of “Detecting breakpoints in global temperature”', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Oct 2019
Interactive discussion
- RC1: 'Review of Detecting breakpoints in global temperature by Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Sep 2019
- RC2: 'Review of “Detecting breakpoints in global temperature”', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Oct 2019
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Junbo Duan
Lanling Zhao
Qing Wang
Pei Li
This preprint has been withdrawn.
- Preprint
(214 KB) - Metadata XML
-
Supplement
(56 KB) - BibTeX
- EndNote
hiatusoccurred in the turn of this century. By using our proposed model, sparse representation with piecewise polynomials which can segment and fit curves automatically, results on five global mean surface temperature records suggest that the allegation of occurrence of
hiatuslacks statistical evidence, and hence reinforce that the global warming is going on.
hiatusoccurred in...