Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-45
05 Sep 2019
 | 05 Sep 2019
Status: this preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Detecting breakpoints in global temperature

Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li

Abstract. This paper aims to address the continuous debate of whether a hiatus occurred in the turn of this century. Several models have been employed to fit the global mean surface temperature data, and the results suggest that the allegation of an occurrence of hiatus lacks statistical evidence. However, these models had potential deficiencies in their capacity for detecting breakpoints, thereby weakening the arguments that deny the existence of a hiatus. To address this issue, we propose an improved sparse representation model, which can automatically segment and fit temperature records using piecewise polynomials. Simulations revealed improved detection performance; studies on five prominent global temperature records produced 2 to 6 breakpoints, none of which occurred after the year 1976, thus reinforcing arguments denying the existence of a 20th century hiatus.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

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Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li
Junbo Duan, Lanling Zhao, Qing Wang, and Pei Li

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Short summary
The global warming is slowing down? There is a continuous debate of whether a hiatus occurred in the turn of this century. By using our proposed model, sparse representation with piecewise polynomials which can segment and fit curves automatically, results on five global mean surface temperature records suggest that the allegation of occurrence of hiatus lacks statistical evidence, and hence reinforce that the global warming is going on.
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