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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-41
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2019-41
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  08 Aug 2019

08 Aug 2019

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This preprint has been withdrawn by the authors.

Estimates of climatic influence on the carbon cycle

Ian Enting1 and Nathan Clisby2 Ian Enting and Nathan Clisby
  • 1CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
  • 2Department of Mathematics, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Hawthorn Vic, 3122, Australia

Abstract. The influence of climatic change on the carbon cycle is important as part of a CO2-climate feedback loop. However the magnitude of the coupling depends on the timescales involved. We expand on previous analyses of the ice-core CO2 data from the pre-industrial period 1000–1750, extending the analysis into the 20th century. Our results emphasise the limitations of characterising the climate-to-CO2 influence by a single number γ. Even once a time-scale dependence is incorporated, the coldest part of the Little Ice Age seems to reflect different behaviour to that in earlier or later centuries. Different temperature reconstructions appear to capture distinct aspects of pre-industrial climate fluctuations that lacked global coherence. An exploratory study extends the analysis into the industrial period. In this study, most paleo-temperature data fail to fit the plateau (or plateaus) in 20th century ice-core CO2, with one particular reconstruction as an exception. One interpretation of this fit is that although the reconstruction does not closely reflect hemispheric temperature changes, it samples a pattern of variation where the terrestrial carbon exchange is anomalously sensitive to regional climate variations. These various results suggest that this type of empirical study may have limited applicability to the 21st century.

This preprint has been withdrawn.

Ian Enting and Nathan Clisby

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Ian Enting and Nathan Clisby

Data sets

enting_esd.zip: R code and data sets required to produce the results and plots in "Estimates of Climatic Influence on the Carbon Cycle" I. Enting https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.9248534

Model code and software

enting_esd.zip: R code and data sets required to produce the results and plots in "Estimates of Climatic Influence on the Carbon Cycle" I. Enting https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.9248534

Ian Enting and Nathan Clisby

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Short summary
The influence of climate on the carbon cycle is estimated by relating CO2 from ice-core data to reconstructions of temperature over the last 1000 years. This relation is important for quantifying the strength of the CO2-climate feedback loop. Extending previous analyses into the 20th century confirmed the influence of heterogeneity in climate variation. This enabled interpretation of features in the ice-core CO2 record in the first half of the 20th century that have previously been to explain.
The influence of climate on the carbon cycle is estimated by relating CO2 from ice-core data to...
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