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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2016-64
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  17 Jan 2017

17 Jan 2017

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This preprint has been retracted.

Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model – Part 1: Abatement efficacy of low-carbon technologies

Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu1,2, Fabio D'Andrea2, Michael Ghil2,3,4, and Charles Nyandwi5 Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu et al.
  • 1Department of Mathematics & Physical Sciences, School of Science, Dedan Kimathi University of Technology, P.O Box 657–10100, Nyeri, Kenya
  • 2LMD/IPSL, Ecole normale supérieure, PSL Research University, Ecole polytechnique, Université Paris-Saclay, Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ. Paris 06, CNRS, 24 rue Lhomond, 75005, Paris, France
  • 3Environmental Research & Teaching Institute, Ecole Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, F-75230, Paris Cedex 05, France
  • 4Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences, University of California at Los Angeles, 3839 Slichter Hall, 405 Hilgard Ave., Los Angeles, USA
  • 5Department of Applied & Industrial Mathematics, School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197–00100, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract. In the present Part 1 of a two-part paper, we formulate and study a simple Coupled Climate–Economy–Biosphere (CoCEB) model. This highly idealized model constitutes the basis of our integrated assessment approach to understanding the various feedbacks involved in the system. CoCEB is composed of a physical climate module, based on Earth's energy balance, and an economy module that uses endogenous economic growth with physical and human capital accumulation. We concentrate on the interactions between the two subsystems: the effect of climate on the economy, via damage functions, and the effect of the economy on climate, via control of greenhouse gas emissions. Simple functional forms of the relation between the two subsystems permit simple interpretations of the coupled effects. The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. In this paper, we consider investments in low-carbon technologies. Carbon capture and storage (CCS), along with deforestation reduction, will be dealt with in Part 2. The CoCEB model is highly flexible and transparent; as such, it allows one to easily formulate and compare different functional representations of climate change mitigation policies. Using different mitigation measures and their cost estimates, as found in the literature, one is able to compare these measures in a coherent way. While many studies in the climate–economic literature treat abatement costs merely as an unproductive loss of income, this paper shows that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided negative impacts of climate change on the economy.

This preprint has been retracted.

Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu et al.

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Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu et al.

Keroboto B. Z. Ogutu et al.

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Short summary
The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission abatement, and on the comparative efficacy of different approaches to abatement. While many studies in the literature treat abatement costs as an unproductive loss of income, we show that mitigation costs do slow down economic growth over the next few decades, but only up to the mid-21st century or even earlier; growth reduction is compensated later on by having avoided climate negative impacts.
The CoCEB model is used to evaluate hypotheses on the long-term effect of investment in emission...
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