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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6-2043-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

  20 Oct 2015

20 Oct 2015

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This preprint was under review for the journal ESD but the revision was not accepted.

A simple model of the anthropogenically forced CO2 cycle

W. Weber1,*,†, H.-J. Lüdecke2,*, and C. O. Weiss3,* W. Weber et al.
  • 1Technical University Dortmund, Institute of Physics, Dortmund, Germany
  • 2HTW, University of Applied Sciences, Saarbrücken, Germany
  • 3Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Braunschweig, Germany
  • *retired
  • deceased 2014

Abstract. From basic physical assumptions we derive a simple linear model of the global CO2 cycle without free parameters. It yields excellent agreement with the observations reported by the carbon dioxide information analysis center (CDIAC) as time series of atmospheric CO2 growth, of sinks in the ocean and of absorption by the biosphere. The agreement extends from the year 1850 until present (2013). Based on anthropogenic CO2 emission scenarios until 2150, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations are calculated. As the model shows, and depending on the emission scenario, the airborne fraction of CO2 begins to decrease in the year ~ 2050 and becomes negative at the latest in ~ 2130. At the same time the concentration of the atmospheric CO2 will reach a maximum between ~ 500 and ~ 900 ppm. As a consequence, increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions will make the ocean and the biosphere the main reservoirs of anthropogenic CO2 in the long run. Latest in about 150 years, anthropogenic CO2 emission will no longer increase the CO2 content of the atmosphere.

W. Weber et al.

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W. Weber et al.

W. Weber et al.

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