the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario
Abstract. This paper advances understanding of the impacts of climate change on crops in China by moving from ex-post analysis to forecasting, and by demonstrating how the effects of climate change will affect the growth period and the planting boundaries of winter wheat. Using a multiple regression model based on agricultural meteorological observations and the IPCC AR5 GCMs simulations, we find that the sowing date of winter wheat in the base period, 2040s and 2070s, shows a gradually delayed trend from north to south and the growth period of winter wheat in China will be shortened under climate change. The simulation results also show that (i) the north planting boundaries of winter wheat in China will likely move northward and expand westward in the future, while the south planting boundary will rise and spread in south Hainan and Taiwan; and (ii) the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region will have the largest increases in planting areas in 2040s and 2070s. Our simulation implies that Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are more sensitive to climate change than other regions in China and priority should be given to design adaptation strategies for winter wheat planting for these provinces.
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RC C849: 'Comment to Sun et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Nov 2015
- AC C862: 'Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario', Shaofeng Jia, 25 Nov 2015
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RC C1291: 'Comments on "Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario"', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Mar 2016
- AC C1293: 'Using MME for avoiding uncertainty', Shaofeng Jia, 30 Mar 2016
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RC C849: 'Comment to Sun et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Nov 2015
- AC C862: 'Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario', Shaofeng Jia, 25 Nov 2015
-
RC C1291: 'Comments on "Impacts of climate change on growth period and planting boundaries of winter wheat in China under RCP4.5 scenario"', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Mar 2016
- AC C1293: 'Using MME for avoiding uncertainty', Shaofeng Jia, 30 Mar 2016
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Cited
7 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The effect of different sowing dates on dry matter and nitrogen dynamics for winter wheat: an experimental simulation study K. Liu et al. 10.7717/peerj.11700
- Temporal and spatial patterns of extreme heat on wheat in China under climate change scenarios H. Chen et al. 10.1016/j.envexpbot.2024.105938
- A hybrid process based-empirical approach to identify the association between wheat productivity and climate in the North China Plain during the past 50 years R. Zhu et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.07.017
- Assessment of Climate Change and Atmospheric CO2 Impact on Winter Wheat in the Pacific Northwest Using a Multimodel Ensemble M. Ahmed et al. 10.3389/fevo.2017.00051
- Impacts of climate change on agrometeorological indices at winter wheat overwintering stage in northern China during 2021–2050 Z. Hao et al. 10.1002/joc.5764
- Climate Change Impacts on Winter Wheat Yield in Northern China X. Geng et al. 10.1155/2019/2767018
- Dynamic proteome changes of wheat developing grains in response to water deficit and high-nitrogen fertilizer conditions W. Duan et al. 10.1016/j.plaphy.2020.08.022