Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-211-2011
https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-2-211-2011
03 Mar 2011
 | 03 Mar 2011
Status: this preprint was under review for the journal ESD but the revision was not accepted.

Geologic constraints on earth system sensitivity to CO2 during the Cretaceous and early Paleogene

D. L. Royer, M. Pagani, and D. J. Beerling

Abstract. Earth system sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>103 yr) equilibrium temperature response to doubled CO2. ESS has climate policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 103 yr, even if anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions drop to zero. We report quantitative ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for much of the Cretaceous and early Paleogene based on paleo-reconstructions of CO2 and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (~3 °C). We conclude that climate models do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks during greenhouse worlds. These absent feedbacks are probably related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases, seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Continued warming in the coming decades as anthropogenic greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere ensures that characterizing and quantifying these positive climate feedbacks will become a scientific challenge of increasing priority.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
D. L. Royer, M. Pagani, and D. J. Beerling
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
D. L. Royer, M. Pagani, and D. J. Beerling
D. L. Royer, M. Pagani, and D. J. Beerling

Viewed

Total article views: 2,276 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
1,263 884 129 2,276 135 124
  • HTML: 1,263
  • PDF: 884
  • XML: 129
  • Total: 2,276
  • BibTeX: 135
  • EndNote: 124
Views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 01 Feb 2013)

Cited

Saved

Latest update: 21 May 2024
Download
Altmetrics