Articles | Volume 8, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1171-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Dec 2017
Research article |
| 15 Dec 2017
Inverse stochastic–dynamic models for high-resolution Greenland ice core records
Niklas Boers
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, Paris, France
Mickael D. Chekroun
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
Honghu Liu
Department of Mathematics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, USA
Dmitri Kondrashov
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
Denis-Didier Rousseau
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, Paris, France
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
Anders Svensson
Centre for Ice and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Matthias Bigler
Physics Institute and Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Michael Ghil
Geosciences Department and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), École Normale Supérieure and PSL Research University, Paris, France
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, USA
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- Generic generation of noise-driven chaos in stochastic time delay systems: Bridging the gap with high-end simulations M. Chekroun et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abq7137
- The effect of state dependence in a delay differential equation model for the El Niño Southern Oscillation A. Keane et al. 10.1098/rsta.2018.0121
- Effective reduced models from delay differential equations: Bifurcations, tipping solution paths, and ENSO variability M. Chekroun & H. Liu 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134058
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- On the numerical integration of the Lorenz-96 model, with scalar additive noise, for benchmark twin experiments C. Grudzien et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020
- Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles N. Boers et al. 10.1073/pnas.1802573115
- Is the glacial climate scale invariant? T. Mitsui et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzy011
- Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison F. Hassanibesheli et al. 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5
- Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record N. Boers 10.1038/s41467-018-04881-7
- On the representation of multiplicative noise in modeling Dansgaard–Oeschger events K. Kypke & P. Ditlevsen 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134215
- Assessing the suitability of the Langevin equation for analyzing measured data through downsampling P. Lin et al. 10.1088/2632-072X/adbba8
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- Efficient Bayesian estimation of the generalized Langevin equation from data C. Willers & O. Kamps 10.1016/j.jcp.2023.112626
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- A complete representation of uncertainties in layer-counted paleoclimatic archives N. Boers et al. 10.5194/cp-13-1169-2017
23 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Intrinsic Pink-Noise Multidecadal Global Climate Dynamics Mode W. Moon et al. 10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.108701
- Theoretical tools for understanding the climate crisis from Hasselmann’s programme and beyond V. Lucarini & M. Chekroun 10.1038/s42254-023-00650-8
- Generic generation of noise-driven chaos in stochastic time delay systems: Bridging the gap with high-end simulations M. Chekroun et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abq7137
- The effect of state dependence in a delay differential equation model for the El Niño Southern Oscillation A. Keane et al. 10.1098/rsta.2018.0121
- Effective reduced models from delay differential equations: Bifurcations, tipping solution paths, and ENSO variability M. Chekroun & H. Liu 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134058
- Stochastic rectification of fast oscillations on slow manifold closures M. Chekroun et al. 10.1073/pnas.2113650118
- Strang splitting for parametric inference in second-order stochastic differential equations P. Pilipovic et al. 10.1016/j.spa.2025.104650
- A consistent statistical model selection for abrupt glacial climate changes J. Lohmann & P. Ditlevsen 10.1007/s00382-018-4519-2
- On the numerical integration of the Lorenz-96 model, with scalar additive noise, for benchmark twin experiments C. Grudzien et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-1903-2020
- Ocean circulation, ice shelf, and sea ice interactions explain Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles N. Boers et al. 10.1073/pnas.1802573115
- Is the glacial climate scale invariant? T. Mitsui et al. 10.1093/climsys/dzy011
- Reconstructing complex system dynamics from time series: a method comparison F. Hassanibesheli et al. 10.1088/1367-2630/ab9ce5
- Early-warning signals for Dansgaard-Oeschger events in a high-resolution ice core record N. Boers 10.1038/s41467-018-04881-7
- On the representation of multiplicative noise in modeling Dansgaard–Oeschger events K. Kypke & P. Ditlevsen 10.1016/j.physd.2024.134215
- Assessing the suitability of the Langevin equation for analyzing measured data through downsampling P. Lin et al. 10.1088/2632-072X/adbba8
- Applying interval stability concept to empirical model of middle Pleistocene transition E. Loskutov et al. 10.1063/5.0079963
- Orbital insolation variations, intrinsic climate variability, and Quaternary glaciations K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/cp-18-863-2022
- Efficient reduction for diagnosing Hopf bifurcation in delay differential systems: Applications to cloud-rain models M. Chekroun et al. 10.1063/5.0004697
- Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events of the penultimate climate cycle: the loess point of view D. Rousseau et al. 10.5194/cp-16-713-2020
- Efficient Bayesian estimation of the generalized Langevin equation from data C. Willers & O. Kamps 10.1016/j.jcp.2023.112626
- Neural closure models for dynamical systems A. Gupta & P. Lermusiaux 10.1098/rspa.2020.1004
- Stable stadial and interstadial states of the last glacial's climate identified in a combined stable water isotope and dust record from Greenland K. Riechers et al. 10.5194/esd-14-593-2023
- Minimum reduced-order models via causal inference N. Chen & H. Liu 10.1007/s11071-024-10824-3
Latest update: 14 Jul 2025
Short summary
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern Greenland (NGRIP) oxygen and dust records of subdecadal resolution for the interval 59 to 22 ka b2k. Our model reproduces the statistical and dynamical characteristics of the records, including the Dansgaard–Oeschger variability, with no need for external forcing. The crucial ingredients are cubic drift terms, nonlinear coupling terms between the oxygen and dust time series, and non-Markovian contributions.
We use a Bayesian approach for inferring inverse, stochastic–dynamic models from northern...
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