Articles | Volume 6, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-781-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-781-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Dec 2015
Research article |
| 14 Dec 2015
The tropical Atlantic surface wind divergence belt and its effect on clouds
Y. Tubul
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
O. Altaratz
Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel
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Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-121, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Manuel Santos Gutiérrez, Mickaël David Chekroun, and Ilan Koren
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.11545, https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.11545, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
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This letter explores a novel approach for the formation of cloud droplets in rising adiabatic air parcels. Our approach combines microphysical equations accounting for moisture, updrafts and concentration of aerosols. Our analysis reveals three regimes: A) Low moisture and high concentration can hinder activation; B) Droplets can activate and stabilize above critical sizes, and C) sparse clouds can have droplets exhibiting activation and deactivation cycles.
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Clouds' responses to global warming contribute the largest uncertainty in climate prediction. Here, we analyze 42 years of global cloud cover in reanalysis data and show a decreasing trend over most continents and an increasing trend over the tropical and subtropical oceans. A reduction in near-surface relative humidity can explain the decreasing trend in cloud cover over land. Our results suggest potential stress on the terrestrial water cycle, associated with global warming.
Elisa T. Sena, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, and Alexander B. Kostinski
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 16111–16122, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-16111-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-16111-2022, 2022
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16203–16217, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16203-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16203-2021, 2021
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Describing cloud mixing processes is among the most challenging fronts in cloud physics. Therefore, the adiabatic fraction (AF) that serves as a mixing measure is a valuable metric. We use high-resolution (10 m) simulations of single clouds with a passive tracer to test the skill of different methods used to derive AF. We highlight a method that is insensitive to the available cloud samples and allows considering microphysical effects on AF estimations in different environmental conditions.
Tom Dror, Mickaël D. Chekroun, Orit Altaratz, and Ilan Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 12261–12272, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-12261-2021, 2021
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A part of continental shallow convective cumulus (Cu) was shown to share properties such as organization and formation over vegetated areas, thus named green Cu. Mechanisms behind the formed patterns are not understood. We use different metrics and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) to decompose the dataset and quantify organization factors (cloud streets and gravity waves). We show that clouds form a highly organized grid structure over hundreds of kilometers at the field lifetime.
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15297–15306, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15297-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15297-2020, 2020
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We used in situ aerosol measurements over the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Pacific to initialize a cloud model and study the impact of aerosol concentration and sizes on warm clouds. We show that high aerosol concentration increases cloud mass and reduces surface rain when giant particles (diameter > 9 µm) are present. The large aerosols changed the timing and magnitude of internal cloud processes and resulted in an enhanced evaporation below cloud base and dramatically reduced surface rain.
Reuven H. Heiblum, Lital Pinto, Orit Altaratz, Guy Dagan, and Ilan Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10717–10738, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10717-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10717-2019, 2019
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It is useful to divide a cloud into two regions: core and margin. Three parameters used to define a core are compared: buoyancy (B), relative humidity (RH), and vertical velocity (W). Using theoretical arguments and simulations, we show that during most of a cloud's lifetime, the cores are subsets of one another: Bcore ⊆ RHcore ⊆ Wcore. Moreover, the core–shell cloud model applies to all core definitions. Our findings can serve as a benchmark in the partition the core and margin.
Reuven H. Heiblum, Lital Pinto, Orit Altaratz, Guy Dagan, and Ilan Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 19, 10739–10755, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10739-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10739-2019, 2019
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The effects of aerosol concentration on a cloud's partition to core and margin are examined. The main finding from Part I (i.e. Bcore ⊆ RHcore ⊆ Wcore) is seen for all aerosol concentrations. Clouds can produce positive buoyancy due to both saturated updrafts or unsaturated downdrafts; the latter are dependent on low aerosol concentrations. We show that a cloud's mass is mainly dependent on core processes (condensation), while its volume is mainly dependent on margin processes (evaporation).
Guy Dagan, Ilan Koren, and Orit Altaratz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6761–6769, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6761-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6761-2018, 2018
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In this paper we distill the problem of aerosol–cloud interactions to an interplay between the system's two characteristic vertical velocities, i.e., the air vertical velocity and the collective droplets fall velocity. We show using theoretical considerations and cloud-resolving models that the relations between the two velocities are extremely sensitive to the cloud field's thermodynamics and microphysical properties.
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We present influence of daily occurrence of the sea breeze flow from the Mediterranean Sea on physicochemical and optical properties of atmospheric aerosol deep inland in the Negev Desert of Israel. Sampled airborne dust was found be internally mixed with sea-salt particles and reacted with anthropogenic pollution, which makes the dust highly hygroscopic and a liquid coating of particles appears. These physicochemical transformations are associated with a change in aerosol radiative properties.
Qian Chen, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, Reuven H. Heiblum, Guy Dagan, and Lital Pinto
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 9585–9598, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9585-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-9585-2017, 2017
Guy Dagan, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, and Reuven H. Heiblum
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7435–7444, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7435-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7435-2017, 2017
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Large eddy simulations with bin microphysics are used to study cloud fields' sensitivity to changes in aerosol loading and the time evolution of this response. We show that the mean field properties change with a non-monotonic trend, with an optimum aerosol concentration for which the field reaches its maximal water mass or rain yield. The evolution of the mean thermodynamic properties is studied and shown to cause the migration of the optimal aerosol concentration toward higher values.
Yaniv Tubul, Ilan Koren, Orit Altaratz, and Reuven H. Heiblum
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2017-121, 2017
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Chandan Sarangi, Sachchida Nand Tripathi, Vijay P. Kanawade, Ilan Koren, and D. Sivanand Pai
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 5185–5204, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5185-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5185-2017, 2017
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Aerosol-induced perturbations in cloud systems and rainfall are very uncertain. This study provides observational evidence of a robust positive association between aerosol–cloud–rainfall properties over the Indian summer monsoon region. Observed and modeled aerosol–cloud microphysical changes illustrate that cloud invigoration under a high AOD scenario can explain most of the aerosol-associated changes in cloud fraction, cloud top pressure, and surface rainfall over this region.
Y. Ben Ami, O. Altaratz, Y. Yair, and I. Koren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2449–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2449-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2449-2015, 2015
S. Fuzzi, U. Baltensperger, K. Carslaw, S. Decesari, H. Denier van der Gon, M. C. Facchini, D. Fowler, I. Koren, B. Langford, U. Lohmann, E. Nemitz, S. Pandis, I. Riipinen, Y. Rudich, M. Schaap, J. G. Slowik, D. V. Spracklen, E. Vignati, M. Wild, M. Williams, and S. Gilardoni
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8217–8299, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, 2015
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Particulate matter (PM) constitutes one of the most challenging problems both for air quality and climate change policies. This paper reviews the most recent scientific results on the issue and the policy needs that have driven much of the increase in monitoring and mechanistic research over the last 2 decades. The synthesis reveals many new processes and developments in the science underpinning climate-PM interactions and the effects of PM on human health and the environment.
G. Feingold, I. Koren, T. Yamaguchi, and J. Kazil
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 7351–7367, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7351-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-7351-2015, 2015
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Most research on the relationship between aerosol and closed/open cell transitions tends to focus on the closed to open transition. Here we address the two-way transition between closed and open cellular states using a cloud resolving model. We find inherent asymmetry in the transitions and explain the source of the asymmetry. Results are supported by a dynamical system analogue to the full system.
G. Dagan, I. Koren, and O. Altaratz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2749–2760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2749-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2749-2015, 2015
E. Tas, A. Teller, O. Altaratz, D. Axisa, R. Bruintjes, Z. Levin, and I. Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 2009–2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2009-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-2009-2015, 2015
G. Snider, C. L. Weagle, R. V. Martin, A. van Donkelaar, K. Conrad, D. Cunningham, C. Gordon, M. Zwicker, C. Akoshile, P. Artaxo, N. X. Anh, J. Brook, J. Dong, R. M. Garland, R. Greenwald, D. Griffith, K. He, B. N. Holben, R. Kahn, I. Koren, N. Lagrosas, P. Lestari, Z. Ma, J. Vanderlei Martins, E. J. Quel, Y. Rudich, A. Salam, S. N. Tripathi, C. Yu, Q. Zhang, Y. Zhang, M. Brauer, A. Cohen, M. D. Gibson, and Y. Liu
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 505–521, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-505-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-505-2015, 2015
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We have initiated a global network of ground-level monitoring stations to measure concentrations of fine aerosols in urban environments. Our findings include major ions species, total mass, and total scatter at three wavelengths. Results will be used to further evaluate and enhance satellite remote sensing estimates.
E. Hirsch, I. Koren, Z. Levin, O. Altaratz, and E. Agassi
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 9001–9012, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9001-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-9001-2014, 2014
A. K. Mishra, K. Klingmueller, E. Fredj, J. Lelieveld, Y. Rudich, and I. Koren
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 7213–7231, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7213-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-7213-2014, 2014
R. H. Heiblum, I. Koren, and G. Feingold
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 6063–6074, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6063-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-6063-2014, 2014
G. Feingold and I. Koren
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 20, 1011–1021, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-1011-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-20-1011-2013, 2013
E. Hirsch, I. Koren, O. Altaratz, Z. Levin, and E. Agassi
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-28729-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-13-28729-2013, 2013
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Lisa Jach, Thomas Schwitalla, Oliver Branch, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Volker Wulfmeyer
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The land surface can influence the occurrence of local rainfall through different feedback mechanisms. In Europe, this happens most frequently in summer. Here, we examine how differences in atmospheric temperature and moisture change where and how often the land surface can influence rainfall. The results show that the differences barely move the region of strong surface influence over Scandinavia and eastern Europe, but they can change the frequency of coupling events.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
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As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Sebastian Landwehr, Michele Volpi, F. Alexander Haumann, Charlotte M. Robinson, Iris Thurnherr, Valerio Ferracci, Andrea Baccarini, Jenny Thomas, Irina Gorodetskaya, Christian Tatzelt, Silvia Henning, Rob L. Modini, Heather J. Forrer, Yajuan Lin, Nicolas Cassar, Rafel Simó, Christel Hassler, Alireza Moallemi, Sarah E. Fawcett, Neil Harris, Ruth Airs, Marzieh H. Derkani, Alberto Alberello, Alessandro Toffoli, Gang Chen, Pablo Rodríguez-Ros, Marina Zamanillo, Pau Cortés-Greus, Lei Xue, Conor G. Bolas, Katherine C. Leonard, Fernando Perez-Cruz, David Walton, and Julia Schmale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1295–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1295-2021, 2021
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The Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition surveyed a large number of variables describing the dynamic state of ocean and atmosphere, freshwater cycle, atmospheric chemistry, ocean biogeochemistry, and microbiology in the Southern Ocean. To reduce the dimensionality of the dataset, we apply a sparse principal component analysis and identify temporal patterns from diurnal to seasonal cycles, as well as geographical gradients and
hotspotsof interaction. Code and data are open access.
Pascal Perolo, Bieito Fernández Castro, Nicolas Escoffier, Thibault Lambert, Damien Bouffard, and Marie-Elodie Perga
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1169–1189, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1169-2021, 2021
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Wind blowing over the ocean creates waves that, by increasing the level of turbulence, promote gas exchange at the air–water interface. In this study, for the first time, we measured enhanced gas exchanges by wind-induced waves at the surface of a large lake. We adapted an ocean-based model to account for the effect of surface waves on gas exchange in lakes. We finally show that intense wind events with surface waves contribute disproportionately to the annual CO2 gas flux in a large lake.
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 837–855, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-837-2021, 2021
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We provide a novel approach to diagnose the strength of the ocean–atmosphere coupling by using both a reduced order model and reanalysis data. Our findings suggest the ocean–atmosphere dynamics presents a rich variety of features, moving from a chaotic to a coherent coupled dynamics, mainly attributed to the atmosphere and only marginally to the ocean. Our observations suggest further investigations in characterizing the occurrence and spatial dependency of the ocean–atmosphere coupling.
Alan Bartholet, Glenn A. Milne, and Konstantin Latychev
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 783–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-783-2021, 2021
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Improving the accuracy of regional sea-level projections is an important aim that will impact estimates of sea-level hazard around the globe. The computation of sea-level fingerprints is a key component of any such projection, and to date these computations have been based on the assumption that elastic deformation accurately describes the solid Earth response on century timescales. We show here that this assumption is inaccurate in some glaciated regions characterized by low mantle viscosity.
Achim Wirth and Florian Lemarié
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 689–708, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-689-2021, 2021
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We show that modern concepts of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics can be applied to large-scale environmental fluid dynamics, where fluctuations are not thermal but come from turbulence. The work theorems developed by Jarzynski and Crooks are applied to air–sea interaction. Rather than looking at the average values of thermodynamic variables, their probability density functions are considered, which allows us to replace the inequalities of equilibrium statistical mechanics with equalities.
Nico Wunderling, Jonathan F. Donges, Jürgen Kurths, and Ricarda Winkelmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 601–619, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-601-2021, 2021
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In the Earth system, climate tipping elements exist that can undergo qualitative changes in response to environmental perturbations. If triggered, this would result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. We quantify the risk of tipping cascades using a conceptual but fully dynamic network approach. We uncover that the risk of tipping cascades under global warming scenarios is enormous and find that the continental ice sheets are most likely to initiate these failures.
Frederik Wolf, Aiko Voigt, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 353–366, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-353-2021, 2021
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In our work, we employ complex networks to study the relation between the time mean position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability. We show that the information hidden in different spatial SST correlation patterns, which we access utilizing complex networks, is strongly correlated with the time mean position of the ITCZ. This research contributes to the ongoing discussion on drivers of the annual migration of the ITCZ.
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
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Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System employing a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High as the main drivers, which have been assumed to be independent previously.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
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Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, 2021
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Several recent studies suggest a modulation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The physics behind this interaction, however, remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated the QBO–MJO interaction and the role of stratospheric ozone as a forcing mechanism. A normal-mode decomposition procedure combined with causality analysis reveals significant interactions between MJO-related modes and QBO-related modes.
Derrick K. Danso, Sandrine Anquetin, Arona Diedhiou, Kouakou Kouadio, and Arsène T. Kobea
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1133–1152, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1133-2020, 2020
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The atmospheric and surface conditions that exist during the occurrence of daytime low-level clouds (LLCs) and their influence on solar radiation were investigated in West Africa. During the monsoon season, these LLCs are linked to high moisture flux driven by strong southwesterly winds from the Gulf of Guinea and significant background moisture levels. Their occurrence leads to a strong reduction in the incoming solar radiation and has large impacts on the surface energy budget.
David García-García, Isabel Vigo, and Mario Trottini
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1089–1106, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1089-2020, 2020
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The global water cycle involves water-mass transport on land, in the atmosphere, in the ocean, and among them. The GRACE mission has allowed for the quantification of water-mass variations. It was a revolution in the understanding of Earth dynamics. Here, we develop and apply a novel method, based on GRACE data and atmospheric models, that allows systematic estimation of water-mass exchange among ocean basins. This is valuable for understanding the role of the ocean within the water cycle.
Marie-Noëlle Woillez, Gaël Giraud, and Antoine Godin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1073–1087, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1073-2020, 2020
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To illustrate the fact that future economic damage from global warming is often highly underestimated, we applied two different statistically based damage functions available in the literature to a global cooling of 4 °C. We show that the gross domestic product (GDP) projections obtained are at odds with the state of the planet during an ice age. We conclude that such functions do not provide relevant information on potential damage from a large climate change, be it cooling or warming.
Jonas Van Breedam, Heiko Goelzer, and Philippe Huybrechts
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 953–976, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-953-2020, 2020
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We made projections of global mean sea-level change during the next 10 000 years for a range in climate forcing scenarios ranging from a peak in carbon dioxide concentrations in the next decades to burning most of the available carbon reserves over the next 2 centuries. We find that global mean sea level will rise between 9 and 37 m, depending on the emission of greenhouse gases. In this study, we investigated the long-term consequence of climate change for sea-level rise.
Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Cristina Primo, Silje Sørland, and Bodo Ahrens
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 903–923, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-903-2020, 2020
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Information exchange (IE) from the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is investigated. Observational data show that IOD and ENSO synergistically exchange information on ISMR variability over central India. IE patterns observed in three global climate models (GCMs) differ from observations. Our study highlights new perspectives that IE metrics could bring to climate science.
Min Chen and Ken Caldeira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 875–883, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-875-2020, 2020
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We examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today’s relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such analyses are unlikely to make accurate predictions but can still be useful for informing discussions about the broad range of incentives that might influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be the areas most adversely affected by climate change.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda, Philip J. Ward, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 793–805, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-793-2020, 2020
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In this paper we quantify Mediterranean compound temperature and precipitation dynamical extremes (CDEs) over the 1979–2018 period. The strength of the temperature–precipitation coupling during summer increased and is driven by surface warming. We also link the CDEs to compound hot–dry and cold–wet events during summer and winter respectively.
Simon Opie, Richard G. Taylor, Chris M. Brierley, Mohammad Shamsudduha, and Mark O. Cuthbert
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 775–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-775-2020, 2020
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Knowledge of the relationship between climate and groundwater is limited and typically undermined by the scale, duration and accessibility of observations. Using monthly satellite measurements newly compiled over 14 years in the tropics and sub-tropics, we show that the imprint of precipitation history on groundwater, i.e. hydraulic memory, is longer in drylands than humid environments with important implications for the understanding and management of groundwater resources under climate change.
Thomas Mölg, Douglas R. Hardy, Emily Collier, Elena Kropač, Christina Schmid, Nicolas J. Cullen, Georg Kaser, Rainer Prinz, and Michael Winkler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 653–672, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-653-2020, 2020
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The glaciers on Kilimanjaro summit are like sample spots of the climate in the tropical mid-troposphere. Measurements of air temperature, air humidity, and precipitation with automated weather stations show that the differences in these meteorological elements between two altitudes (~ 5600 and ~ 5900 m) vary significantly over the day and the seasons, in concert with airflow dynamics around the mountain. Knowledge of these variations will improve atmosphere and cryosphere models.
Xinnong Pan, Geli Wang, Peicai Yang, Jun Wang, and Anastasios A. Tsonis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 525–535, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-525-2020, 2020
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The variations in oceanic and atmospheric modes play important roles in global and regional climate variability. The relationships between their variations and regional climate variability have been extensively examined, but the interconnections among these climate modes remain unclear. We show that the base periods and their harmonic oscillations that appear to be related to QBO, ENSO, and solar activities act as key connections among the climatic modes with synchronous behaviors.
Martin Wegmann, Marco Rohrer, María Santolaria-Otín, and Gerrit Lohmann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 509–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-509-2020, 2020
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Predicting the climate of the upcoming season is of big societal benefit, but finding out which component of the climate system can act as a predictor is difficult. In this study, we focus on Eurasian snow cover as such a component and show that knowing the snow cover in November is very helpful in predicting the state of winter over Europe. However, this mechanism was questioned in the past. Using snow data that go back 150 years into the past, we are now very confident in this relationship.
Hannah S. Davies, J. A. Mattias Green, and Joao C. Duarte
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 291–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-291-2020, 2020
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We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth's future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.
Paolo De Luca, Gabriele Messori, Robert L. Wilby, Maurizio Mazzoleni, and Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 251–266, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-251-2020, 2020
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We show that floods and droughts can co-occur in time across remote regions on the globe and introduce metrics that can help in quantifying concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes. We then link wet–dry extremes to major modes of climate variability (i.e. ENSO, PDO, and AMO) and provide their spatial patterns. Such concurrent extreme hydrological events may pose risks to regional hydropower production and agricultural yields.
Yang Liu, Jisk Attema, Ben Moat, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 77–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-77-2020, 2020
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Poleward meridional energy transport (MET) has significant impact on the climate in the Arctic. In this study, we quantify and intercompare MET at subpolar latitudes from six reanalysis data sets. The results indicate that the spatial distribution and temporal variations of MET differ substantially among the reanalysis data sets. Our study suggests that the MET estimated from reanalyses is useful for the evaluation of energy transports but should be used with great care.
Mia H. Gross, Markus G. Donat, Lisa V. Alexander, and Steven C. Sherwood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 97–111, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-97-2020, 2020
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This study explores the amplified warming of cold extremes relative to average temperatures for both the recent past and future in the Northern Hemisphere and the possible physical processes that are driving this. We find that decreases in snow cover and
warmer-than-usual winds are driving the disproportionate rates of warming in cold extremes relative to average temperatures. These accelerated warming rates in cold extremes have implications for tourism, insect longevity and human health.
Giorgia Di Capua, Marlene Kretschmer, Reik V. Donner, Bart van den Hurk, Ramesh Vellore, Raghavan Krishnan, and Dim Coumou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 17–34, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-17-2020, 2020
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Drivers from both the mid-latitudes and the tropical regions have been proposed to influence the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) subseasonal variability. To understand the relative importance of tropical and mid-latitude drivers, we apply recently developed causal discovery techniques to disentangle the causal relationships among these processes. Our results show that there is indeed a two-way interaction between the mid-latitude circulation and ISM rainfall over central India.
Nele Tim, Eduardo Zorita, Kay-Christian Emeis, Franziska U. Schwarzkopf, Arne Biastoch, and Birgit Hünicke
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 847–858, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-847-2019, 2019
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Our study reveals that the latitudinal position and intensity of Southern Hemisphere trades and westerlies are correlated. In the last decades the westerlies have shifted poleward and intensified. Furthermore, the latitudinal shifts and intensity of the trades and westerlies impact the sea surface temperatures around southern Africa and in the South Benguela upwelling region. The future development of wind stress depends on the strength of greenhouse gas forcing.
Ashok Kumar Pokharel and Michael L. Kaplan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 651–666, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-651-2019, 2019
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This study contributes to a better understanding of how large-scale dust transport can be organized from northwest Africa to the US, Amazon basin, and Europe and might be due in part to Kelvin waves. We also think there is still a need to study major historical dust events that occurred in this region to confirm that this location is suitable and responsible for the generation of the Kelvin waves and the transport of dust on a regular basis.
Christoph Heinze, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Colin Jones, Yves Balkanski, William Collins, Thierry Fichefet, Shuang Gao, Alex Hall, Detelina Ivanova, Wolfgang Knorr, Reto Knutti, Alexander Löw, Michael Ponater, Martin G. Schultz, Michael Schulz, Pier Siebesma, Joao Teixeira, George Tselioudis, and Martin Vancoppenolle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 379–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019, 2019
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Earth system models for producing climate projections under given forcings include additional processes and feedbacks that traditional physical climate models do not consider. We present an overview of climate feedbacks for key Earth system components and discuss the evaluation of these feedbacks. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research.
Leying Zhang, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, Ning Shi, and Jiechun Deng
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 261–270, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-261-2019, 2019
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Net heat flux dominates the frontogenesis of the NPSTF from October to December, while oceanic meridional temperature advection contributes equally as much or even more net heat flux in January and February. The atmosphere is critical to frontogenesis through net heat flux and the Aleutian low, the latter of which benefits meridional temperature advection.
Miguel Nogueira
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 219–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-219-2019, 2019
Mathias Hauser, Wim Thiery, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 157–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-157-2019, 2019
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We develop a method to keep the amount of water in the soil at the present-day level, using only local water sources in a global climate model. This leads to less drying over many land areas, but also decreases river runoff. We find that temperature extremes in the 21st century decrease substantially using our method. This provides a new perspective on how land water can influence regional climate and introduces land water management as potential tool for local mitigation of climate change.
Elad Levintal, Nadav G. Lensky, Amit Mushkin, and Noam Weisbrod
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1141–1153, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1141-2018, 2018
Stéphane Vannitsem and Pierre Ekelmans
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1063–1083, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1063-2018, 2018
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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation phenomenon is a slow dynamics present in the coupled ocean–atmosphere tropical Pacific system which has important teleconnections with the northern extratropics. These teleconnections are usually believed to be the source of an enhanced predictability in the northern extratropics at seasonal to decadal timescales. This question is challenged by investigating the causality between these regions using an advanced technique known as convergent cross mapping.
Monica Ionita, Patrick Scholz, Klaus Grosfeld, and Renate Treffeisen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 939–954, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-939-2018, 2018
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In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational record (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by the wettest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian ocean, the Ross Sea, and the Weddell Sea.
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