Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Research article
 | 
09 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 09 Oct 2025

Eco-evolutionary modelling of global vegetation dynamics and the impact of CO2 during the late Quaternary: insights from contrasting periods

Jierong Zhao, Boya Zhou, Sandy P. Harrison, and Colin Prentice

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1655-2025-supplement

Data sets

Global Gross Primary Productivity of Vegetation During the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and Pre-Industrial Period [Data set] J. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14257604

Model code and software

ImperialCollegeLondon/pyrealm: v0.10.1 (0.10.1) D. Orme and C. Prentice https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8366848

Global Gross Primary Productivity of Vegetation During the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene, and Pre-Industrial Period [Data set] J. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14257604

CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-LR outputs Earth System Federation Grid http://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/

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Short summary
We used eco-evolutionary optimality modelling to examine how climate and CO2 impacted vegetation at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 000 years ago) and the mid-Holocene (MH; 6000 years ago). Low CO2 at the LGM was as important as climate in reducing tree cover and productivity and in  increasing C4 plant abundance. Climate had positive effects on MH vegetation, but the low CO2 was a constraint on plant growth. These results show it is important to consider changing CO2 to model ecosystem changes.
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