Articles | Volume 15, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-405-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used
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- Final revised paper (published on 24 Apr 2024)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 15 Nov 2023)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2520', Peter Irvine, 07 Dec 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Anton Laakso, 09 Feb 2024
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-2520', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Dec 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Anton Laakso, 09 Feb 2024
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (15 Feb 2024) by Michel Crucifix
AR by Anton Laakso on behalf of the Authors (16 Feb 2024)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
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ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (27 Feb 2024) by Michel Crucifix
AR by Anton Laakso on behalf of the Authors (07 Mar 2024)
Author's response
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General comments
The authors evaluate the precipitation response to stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) geoengineering, considering earth system model and aerosol microsphysical uncertainty. Prescribed aerosol fields were generated in an ESM with either a sectional or modal aerosol module, producing quite different aerosol properties and hence radiative forcings. These were fed into 3 different ESMs which simulated a range of combinations of CO2 and SAI injections. The fast, forcing-driven hydrological response was found to be quite different for the different aerosol modules as the modal module produced fewer, larger particles which absorbed more LW radiation. Despite being driven by the same aerosol field, the ESMs produced quite different radiative, temperature and precipitation responses. However, the largest differences in many respects arose from the microphysical representation. The study makes a detailed analysis of the various factors that shape the precipitation response to SAI, making clear that microphysical uncertainties are important.
This paper will make a substantial contribution to the literature, is generally well-written and has generally good quality analysis, and so I recommend that it be published after making relatively modest changes, outlined below.
The paper is generally clear and well-written, but the argument was a little hard to follow in places as the paper jumped back and forth between radiative forcing and precipitation several times. For example, section 4.4 is titled “simulated precipitation response…” but the opening page is about the reasons for a radiative mismatch. The authors may consider revising the order of analysis.
The figures and analysis are generally very good, but in places the analytical choices made things a little difficult to follow, e.g., Figure 6 was particularly challenging. I’ve made a series of suggestions for improvement in the specific comments below.
I was left not quite knowing the answer to a question that I think could help increase the impact of this study and I think that with a little work could be easily answered. There is a factor of ~2 difference in the SO2 amount needed to achieve the same cooling for the sectional and modal aerosol modules. This made me wonder: is the residual precipitation, or just fast precipitation, difference ~2x larger as well? Or does the fast effect of CO2 dominate this residual? More generally, could the authors comments on the relative scale of the precipitation differences compared to this injection amount? RMSE difference might be a simple metric that could be calculated to test this. Some take-away claim that relates these 2 key elements would make the paper more memorable and useful to the community.
Specific comments
L14 – reduction relative to what?
L16 – “rather negatively correlated” – why not just negatively correlated? And could you clarify what is meant by “absorbed radiation” here? Is that a new finding or a widely established result that you are referencing?
L30 – relative to what?
L31-34 – review phrasing.
L43 – clarify whether the same 2 aerosol modules were used in the 3 different models.
L50 – might be nice to indicate roughly the fractional changes here.
L23-50 – Might be worth indicating which aerosol scheme performs better at reproducing observed volcanic response if that can be determined, i.e., is the SALSA sectional model better but more expensive and M7 the poor-man’s alternative?
L59-60 – Does this apply in the same way to stratospheric heating as it does to tropospheric? Is stratospheric heating as effective as tropospheric heating at suppressing precipitation? If the absorption occurred up in the mesosphere, I imagine it would have little effect on the hydrological cycle.
L64-66 – perhaps note T-driven intensification under GHG case?
L75 – formatting of citations.
L78 – in the consequent precipitation responses.
L103 – add resolution in degrees.
L149 – from a preindustrial baseline with GHG and SAI perturbations applied?
Figure 1 – Great figure! Small suggestion: 6x climate responses instead of impacts.
L162 – logarithmic fit
Figure 2 – Another great figure. Wondered if it might make sense to use the shape to match models, e.g., diamonds = CESM. This might help the colorblind to follow along. Looks like that was done in Figure 3, but I’d suggest adding the shapes to the legend or caption.
L206 – will have changed when it does settle down?
L205 – 213 – a little repetitive.
L245-249 - phrasing a little unclear.
Figure 4 – Is it best to compare injection mass for Salsa and M7 directly in this way? I found myself a little confused until I remembered that 50Tg in Salsa has a much greater cooling effect than in M7. Perhaps some additional text or analysis could clarify this, e.g., normalizing the fast effect by the expected cooling magnitude or plotting against an x-axis that shows temperature or RF?
L295-296 – Would this non-linearity disappear if the axis was RF instead?
L347 – less precipitation = a greater reduction in precipitation relative to the baseline?
L350 – link back to earlier claim on reduced SO2 for same RF in EC-earth?
Figure 6 – Is this the best way to get this information across? I’m very confused by some of the analytical choices and by how complex it is. Why aren’t the points falling on the precise CO2 ppm values used before? Can the analysis be flipped so that they do? More information needed on c, to clarify modelled pairs. Panel d seems like it could have been a whole multi-panel figure of its own. I also wonder if a pure temperature adjustment is the best choice, couldn’t you also scale up or down the fast effect of SAI by the fractional change in cooling that’s needed? Presumably that would give a better fit.
L355 – conversely? should that be Additionally?
355-360 – this suggests switching axes on Figure 6, as CO2 is the dependent variable.
4.4 – Given the first page is about the radiative mismatch, should this be 2 sub-sections? And should the radiative discussion come here or earlier? This might help with the flow of the article.
L392 – global mean precipitation is more positive?
L393 – here you are referring to the effect after the fast effect, whereas in some studies it is meant to include the total effect.
L398-400 – I think making the correction I suggested and noting that the forcing mismatch produced this precipitation mismatch might lead to a more useful conclusion here.
L403-420 – Isn’t a big driver of the overcooling / residual warming seen in many stratospheric aerosol geoengineering experiments the distribution of aerosols? Might be useful to refer to that distribution here and remind the reader that it’s the same in each model (I may have forgotten myself by this point).
Figure 7 – maybe a note on how these pairings were chosen. It might be useful to extend the y axis and add a global mean temperature residual value to the legend.
Figure 8 – A bit difficult to read, would adding figure wide column and row labels make it easier to parse? You might also consider rearranging so that SALSA is as one block, M7 as another.
Figure 9 – missing labels. Panel a is quite difficult to read, some for previous figure. Is there another way to show this?
Figure 10, same comment as 8.
489-494 – not particularly clear or particularly logical flow at the end of this paragraph, consider revising.
504-505 – compared to what? Is the comparison to the baseline the most relevant? Should it be to the 500 ppm case? Given the amount of SO2 injected scales with CO2, this difference in injection amount should modulate that total precipitation response, which as a consequence shifts the net result.
L513-514 – See my earlier comment about making a full adjustment, i.e., what would have occurred if the correct amount had been chosen to keep temperature constant, rather than just the temperature adjustment (which excludes the change in fast forcing effect).
L495-513 – Here or elsewhere some comment on the relative scale of the precipitation differences compared to the required injection amounts would be useful. M7 suggests ~2x greater sulphate required, is the gross or net precipitation difference 2x greater too?
518 – more negative?
530 – consistently more negative?
538 – perhaps remind reader that they faced the same change in aerosol optical properties
543-547 – a little hard to follow.