Articles | Volume 15, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought
Dominik L. Schumacher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Mariam Zachariah
Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BU, UK
Friederike Otto
Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BU, UK
Clair Barnes
Grantham Institute, Imperial College, London, SW7 2BU, UK
Sjoukje Philip
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, 3731, the Netherlands
Sarah Kew
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, 3731, the Netherlands
Maja Vahlberg
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2593, the Netherlands
Roop Singh
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2593, the Netherlands
Dorothy Heinrich
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2593, the Netherlands
Julie Arrighi
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2593, the Netherlands
Global Disaster Preparedness Center, Washington, DC 20006, USA
University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, the Netherlands
Maarten van Aalst
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, 2593, the Netherlands
University of Twente, Enschede, 7500, the Netherlands
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, NY 10964-1000, USA
Mathias Hauser
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Martin Hirschi
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Verena Bessenbacher
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
MeteoSwiss, Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich-Airport, Switzerland
Lukas Gudmundsson
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Hiroko K. Beaudoing
Earth Sciences Division, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
Matthew Rodell
Earth Sciences Division, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK
Wenchang Yang
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Luke J. Harrington
Te Aka Mātuatua School of Science, University of Waikato, Hillcrest, Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
Flavio Lehner
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-1504, USA
Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80301, USA
Polar Bears International, Bozeman, MT 3008, USA
Gianpaolo Balsamo
European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK
Sonia I. Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- An analytical study on the influence of initial soil moisture and meteorological anomalies on flash droughts V. Singh & T. Apurv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103653
- Climate impacts on UK food J. Lee & G. Redmond-King https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.2025.2520874
- Systems-level risks of the climate crisis are currently missed: A mental health lens M. Mikaelsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000722
- Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change M. Nagpal et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a
- CH-RUN: a deep-learning-based spatially contiguous runoff reconstruction for Switzerland B. Kraft et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025
- Brief communication: Atmospheric moisture and near-surface temperature anomalies: key drivers in the 2022 European mega-drought J. Fernández-Alvarez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3741-2026
- Potential of long-term satellite observations and reanalysis products for characterising soil drying: trends and drought events M. Hirschi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025
- Understanding the 2023 compound dry hazard events across the pan-Asian region D. Abella & K. Ahn https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae08cf
- Climate-pollution compound extremes drive PM2.5 beyond WHO air quality guidelines V. Bento et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100933
- Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting D. Yoon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722
- Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
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- Increasing risk of 2022-like droughts in Europe under climate change: evidence from Large Ensembles using flow analogs B. Bulut et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04235-z
- Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought R. Biella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026
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- 全球多时间尺度复合高温干旱增加 义. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/N072024-0363
- Recent summer soil moisture drying in Switzerland based on measurements from the SwissSMEX network M. Hirschi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026
- Increases in global hot droughts across multiple timescales Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-024-1680-4
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Improved grid-based semi-centennial reconstruction and diagnostic assessment of global water storage leveraging ensemble machine learning R. Anjaneyulu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-026-02098-x
- An analytical study on the influence of initial soil moisture and meteorological anomalies on flash droughts V. Singh & T. Apurv https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103653
- Climate impacts on UK food J. Lee & G. Redmond-King https://doi.org/10.1080/14620316.2025.2520874
- Systems-level risks of the climate crisis are currently missed: A mental health lens M. Mikaelsson et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000722
- Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change M. Nagpal et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a
- CH-RUN: a deep-learning-based spatially contiguous runoff reconstruction for Switzerland B. Kraft et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-1061-2025
- Brief communication: Atmospheric moisture and near-surface temperature anomalies: key drivers in the 2022 European mega-drought J. Fernández-Alvarez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3741-2026
- Potential of long-term satellite observations and reanalysis products for characterising soil drying: trends and drought events M. Hirschi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-397-2025
- Understanding the 2023 compound dry hazard events across the pan-Asian region D. Abella & K. Ahn https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae08cf
- Climate-pollution compound extremes drive PM2.5 beyond WHO air quality guidelines V. Bento et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2026.100933
- Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling in 2022 CONUS compound drought-heatwave events and implications for forecasting D. Yoon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2024.100722
- Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought E. Bevacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
- Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events F. Knutzen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025
- Bilateral coupling relationships between vegetation NDVI and multi-depth soil moisture in the Mongolian Plateau S. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2025.2532774
- The 2022 drought needs to be a turning point for European drought risk management R. Biella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4475-2025
- How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage? D. Coumou et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae277
- Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections L. Lindenlaub et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026
- Increasing risk of 2022-like droughts in Europe under climate change: evidence from Large Ensembles using flow analogs B. Bulut et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-026-04235-z
- Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought R. Biella et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026
- Rapidly increasing chance of record UK summer temperatures G. Kay et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.7741
- Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors Y. Quilcaille et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09450-9
- 全球多时间尺度复合高温干旱增加 义. 张 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/N072024-0363
- Recent summer soil moisture drying in Switzerland based on measurements from the SwissSMEX network M. Hirschi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-4855-2026
- Increases in global hot droughts across multiple timescales Y. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-024-1680-4
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 21 Aug 2026
Editorial statement
Agro-ecological drought has so far been subject to comparatively little research in the detection and attribution literature, compared to meteorological drought. Nonetheless, it is of direct relevance for socio-environmental impacts. This paper addresses such knolwedge gap by focussing on a recent major drought event.
Agro-ecological drought has so far been subject to comparatively little research in the...
Short summary
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented...
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