Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1161-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Storylines of summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents–Kara seas and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risk assessment
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5004 Bergen, Norway
Ryan S. Williams
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Gareth Marshall
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Andrew Orr
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Lise Seland Graff
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0371 Oslo, Norway
Dörthe Handorf
Alfred Wegener Institute, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Alexey Karpechko
Finnish Meteorological Institute, 00560 Helsinki, Finland
Raphael Köhler
Alfred Wegener Institute, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
René R. Wijngaard
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, 3584 CC Utrecht, the Netherlands
Nadine Johnston
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
Hanna Lee
Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5004 Bergen, Norway
Lars Nieradzik
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Priscilla A. Mooney
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5004 Bergen, Norway
Model code and software
Codes for Earth System Dynamics manuscript "Storylines of Summer Arctic climate change constrained by Barents-Kara Sea and Arctic tropospheric warming for climate risks assessment" Xavier J. Levine https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12627367
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, differences remain...
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