Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China in CMIP6
Anja Katzenberger
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
Anders Levermann
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
LDEO, Columbia University, New York, NY 10964, USA
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32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A 3.5-fold increase in the synchrony of extreme precipitation and temperature events across China from 1930 to 2022 B. Yu et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13415-3
- Impact of global warming on precipitation extremes based on the design frequencies over South Korea A. Juzbašić et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103021
- Summer hydroclimate variations in Northeast China during the period of 1568–2021 Y. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1579-3
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- Evolutionary dynamics and adaptive mechanisms of Impatiens species in response to climate change: insights from chloroplast genomics and ecological niche modelling in Southwest China S. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1093/botlinnean/boag006
- A XGBoost-based composite drought index combining multi-source remote sensing data for drought monitoring in China X. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103623
- Consistent increase in East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China in CMIP6 A. Katzenberger & A. Levermann https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1137-2024
- Evaluation of Present and Future Relationships Between Daily Precipitation and Temperature in Eastern China Y. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70168
- A climate–habitat–network robustness framework reveals climate‐driven habitat shifts and corridor resilience for milu in China M. Fu et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70269
- Subseasonal Ensemble Prediction of the 2024 Abrupt Drought-to-Flood Transition in Henan Province, China Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18050635
- A 1700-year peatland-based hydroclimate record from the Hengduan Mountains in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau reveals changing dynamics of the summer monsoon interface Y. Xia et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2025.109501
- Characteristics and major circulation patterns of diverse compound heat and precipitation extremes over South China C. Xu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.108901
- Insignificant future changes in decadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon rainfall J. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08074-7
- Reorganization of moisture transport underpins the leading modes of East Asian summer precipitation W. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2026.100823
- Advancing Asian Monsoon Climate Prediction under Global Change: Progress, Challenges, and Outlook B. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5019-z
- Spatiotemporal dynamics of future hydrology in the Pearl River Basin: Controls of climate change and land surface Y. Zhang & J. Gan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102239
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- Future projections of China runoff changes based on CMIP6 and deep learning X. Wei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.102998
- Assessment of non-point source loads under climate change and urbanization scenarios using a rainfall-runoff model S. Woo et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.157
- A review of climate change impact on canola physiology and yield in Mediterranean-type climates: Challenges and opportunities for the Western Cape A. le Roux et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/02571862.2026.2651687
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- <bold>1568</bold><bold>~</bold><bold>2021</bold>年中国东北夏季水文气候变化 禹. 刘 et al. https://doi.org/10.1360/N072025-0069
- Challenges and a hybrid approach in predicting East Asian summer rainfall: a coupled-mode perspective W. Tan et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08257-2
- Effect of slope gradient on drought propagation in different climate zones and under different climate-change backgrounds D. Wu & Z. Hu https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2025.2579749
- Spatiotemporal evaluation of CMIP6 extreme precipitation indices across major river basins in South Korea N. Huong et al. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2026.091
- C4MIP-based projections of moisture convergence and extreme precipitation risks in East Asia N. Jeon et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108637
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- Precipitation and circulation changes in the Indian summer monsoon region under stratospheric aerosol intervention in the GLENS simulations S. Wilson & G. Bala https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ae7599
- Projection of Temperatures and Precipitation Using the LARS‐WG Model in Eastern China Under the CMIP6 Scenarios K. Disasa et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8929
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 Aug 2026
Short summary
A fifth of the world's population lives in eastern China, whose climate is dominated by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Therefore, it is important to know how the EASM will change under global warming. Here, we use the data of 34 climate models of the latest generation to understand how the EASM will change throughout the 21st century. The models project that the EASM will intensify and that variability between years will increase associated with an increase in extremely wet seasons.
A fifth of the world's population lives in eastern China, whose climate is dominated by the East...
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