Articles | Volume 14, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Mar 2023
Research article |
| 01 Mar 2023
| 01 Mar 2023
Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Sem Vijverberg
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Anne F. Van Loon
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jeroen Aerts
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of International Research projects, Deltares Institute, Delft, the Netherlands
Dim Coumou
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Department of Weather and Climate models, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Risk transference between climate variability and financial derivatives: Implications for global food security H. Yahyaei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100038
- Evaluating the impact of rainfall patterns on sustainable agricultural crop production S. Chakraborty et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01392-6
- Preseason ENSO signals and the underlying mechanisms driving soybean yield anomaly in the Americas M. Li & X. Li https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128077
- ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020 X. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828
- Impacts of the atmospheric mean state on austral early-winter Indian Ocean teleconnections with Chile in CMIP5/CMIP6 models D. Sabatani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108509
- 全球变暖加强了<bold>ENSO</bold>和亚洲<bold>-</bold>澳州夏季风之间的关联 保. 杨 & 敏. 贺 https://doi.org/10.1360/N072023-0252
- Global warming strengthens the association between ENSO and the Asian-Australian summer monsoon B. Yang & M. He https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1237-6
- Extreme Meteorological Drought Events over China (1951–2022): Migration Patterns, Diversity of Temperature Extremes, and Decadal Variations Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4004-2
- Weak and heterogeneous ENSO teleconnections to Brazilian soybean yields: a municipal-to-national assessment F. da Cunha Mello et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06266-z
- One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x
- Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines H. Goulart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024
- Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks X. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7040
- The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US M. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
- Natural soil drying in relation to climate: Impact on food production and stability of buildings R. Piacentini et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/07373937.2023.2277617
- Bridging soybean yield gaps in Ghana: opportunities and challenges for sustainable smallholder production and livelihood G. Awuni et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2026.1812482
- Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation F. Tootoonchi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026
- HSE-GNN-CP: Spatiotemporal Teleconnection Modeling and Conformalized Uncertainty Quantification for Global Crop Yield Forecasting S. Mahmood et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/info17020141
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Risk transference between climate variability and financial derivatives: Implications for global food security H. Yahyaei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclimf.2024.100038
- Evaluating the impact of rainfall patterns on sustainable agricultural crop production S. Chakraborty et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01392-6
- Preseason ENSO signals and the underlying mechanisms driving soybean yield anomaly in the Americas M. Li & X. Li https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128077
- ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020 X. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828
- Impacts of the atmospheric mean state on austral early-winter Indian Ocean teleconnections with Chile in CMIP5/CMIP6 models D. Sabatani et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108509
- 全球变暖加强了<bold>ENSO</bold>和亚洲<bold>-</bold>澳州夏季风之间的关联 保. 杨 & 敏. 贺 https://doi.org/10.1360/N072023-0252
- Global warming strengthens the association between ENSO and the Asian-Australian summer monsoon B. Yang & M. He https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-023-1237-6
- Extreme Meteorological Drought Events over China (1951–2022): Migration Patterns, Diversity of Temperature Extremes, and Decadal Variations Z. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4004-2
- Weak and heterogeneous ENSO teleconnections to Brazilian soybean yields: a municipal-to-national assessment F. da Cunha Mello et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-026-06266-z
- One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x
- Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines H. Goulart et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024
- Observed trends in multiple breadbasket yield shocks X. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7040
- The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US M. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
- Natural soil drying in relation to climate: Impact on food production and stability of buildings R. Piacentini et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/07373937.2023.2277617
- Bridging soybean yield gaps in Ghana: opportunities and challenges for sustainable smallholder production and livelihood G. Awuni et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fagro.2026.1812482
- Warmer growing seasons improve cereal yields in Northern Europe only with increasing precipitation F. Tootoonchi et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-2583-2026
- HSE-GNN-CP: Spatiotemporal Teleconnection Modeling and Conformalized Uncertainty Quantification for Global Crop Yield Forecasting S. Mahmood et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/info17020141
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Jun 2026
Short summary
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal networks, we show that soy yields are predominately driven by summer soil moisture conditions in North and South America. Summer soil moisture is affected by antecedent soil moisture and by remote extra-tropical SST patterns in both hemispheres. Both of these soil moisture drivers are again influenced by ENSO. Our results highlight physical pathways by which ENSO can drive spatially compounding impacts.
Spatially compounding soy harvest failures can have important global impacts. Using causal...
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