Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1641-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Emit now, mitigate later? Earth system reversibility under overshoots of different magnitudes and durations
NORCE Climate & Environment, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ali Asaadi
NORCE Climate & Environment, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Norman Julius Steinert
NORCE Climate & Environment, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Hanna Lee
NORCE Climate & Environment, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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- The concepts of irreversibility and reversibility in research on anthropogenic environmental changes L. Buhr et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae577
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13 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401
- Ten new insights in climate science 2023 M. Bustamante et al. 10.1017/sus.2023.25
- Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios J. Oh et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-01928-0
- The concepts of irreversibility and reversibility in research on anthropogenic environmental changes L. Buhr et al. 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgae577
- More Frequent Abrupt Marine Environmental Changes Expected C. Heinze et al. 10.1029/2023GL106192
- Methods for Measuring Carbon Dioxide Uptake and Permanence: Review and Implications for Macroalgae Aquaculture D. Rose & L. Hemery 10.3390/jmse11010175
- Hysteresis of Northern Hemisphere permafrost to carbon dioxide emissions T. Wei et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad69a6
- Carbon cycle feedbacks in an idealized simulation and a scenario simulation of negative emissions in CMIP6 Earth system models A. Asaadi et al. 10.5194/bg-21-411-2024
- Hemispheric asymmetric response of tropical cyclones to CO2 emission reduction C. Liu et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00632-2
- Temporary overshoot: Origins, prospects, and a long path ahead A. Reisinger & O. Geden 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.008
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review N. Wunderling et al. 10.5194/esd-15-41-2024
- Overconfidence in climate overshoot C. Schleussner et al. 10.1038/s41586-024-08020-9
1 citations as recorded by crossref.
Latest update: 30 Jan 2025
Short summary
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere to compensate for too large past and near-term emissions by using idealized model simulations of overshoot pathways. On a timescale of 100 years, we find a high degree of reversibility if the overshoot size remains small, and we do not find tipping points even for intense overshoots. We caution that current Earth system models are most likely not able to skilfully model tipping points in ecosystems.
We test whether climate change can be partially reversed if CO2 is removed from the atmosphere...
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