Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Julien Boé
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Saïd Qasmi
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Brigitte Dubuisson
Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Hervé Douville
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Laurent Terray
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Cited
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions? T. Li et al.
- A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package Y. Robin et al.
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al.
- Increasing prevalence of warm monomictic lakes in France over six decades under climate change N. Sharaf et al.
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al.
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al.
- The European Alps in a changing climate: physical trends and impacts M. Dumont et al.
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al.
- Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models J. Deman & J. Boé
- La sécheresse 2022 en France : retour vers le futur S. Mittelberger et al.
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al.
- Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer T. Guinaldo et al.
- Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections: Regional Climate Models and Internal Variability matter G. Evin et al.
- Ticks and associated pathogens recovered from dogs and cats during a longitudinal collection study at veterinary practices in France C. Marques Alves et al.
- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al.
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al.
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections T. Jaouen et al.
- Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change R. Le Roux et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe A. Al-Yaari et al.
- Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France S. Barthelemy et al.
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- Cooler than observed sea surface could have reduced impacts of storm Alex and induced mediterranean heavy precipitation event in France M. Bador et al.
- Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France Q. Tao et al.
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al.
- The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100 Y. Wang
- Modelling of atmospheric variability in gas and aerosols during the ACROSS campaign 2022 of the greater Paris area: evaluation of the meteorology, dynamics and chemistry L. Di Antonio et al.
- The Explore2–2022 climate projections dataset for impact studies over France P. Marson et al.
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al.
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Future nuclear power outages in a changing climate - A case study on two contrasted French power plants L. Collet et al.
- Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- Economy-wide but fragile decreases in greenhouse gas emissions supported by climate policy in France C. Le Quéré
- Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation L. Corre et al.
- Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached E. Barnes et al.
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al.
- Drinking water availability from scattered crystalline aquifers: Climatic risks evaluated from production data in France A. Boisson et al.
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi
- Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes D. Schumacher et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
44 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Should we think of observationally constrained multidecade climate projections as predictions? T. Li et al.
- A Bayesian statistical method to estimate the climatology of extreme temperature under multiple scenarios: the ANKIALE package Y. Robin et al.
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al.
- Increasing prevalence of warm monomictic lakes in France over six decades under climate change N. Sharaf et al.
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al.
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al.
- The European Alps in a changing climate: physical trends and impacts M. Dumont et al.
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al.
- Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models J. Deman & J. Boé
- La sécheresse 2022 en France : retour vers le futur S. Mittelberger et al.
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al.
- Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer T. Guinaldo et al.
- Uncertainty sources in a large ensemble of hydrological projections: Regional Climate Models and Internal Variability matter G. Evin et al.
- Ticks and associated pathogens recovered from dogs and cats during a longitudinal collection study at veterinary practices in France C. Marques Alves et al.
- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al.
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al.
- Simulating record-shattering cold winters of the beginning of the 21st century in France C. Cadiou & P. Yiou
- Will rivers become more intermittent in France? Learning from an extended set of hydrological projections T. Jaouen et al.
- Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change R. Le Roux et al.
- ClimLoco1.0: CLimate variable confidence Interval of Multivariate Linear Observational COnstraint V. Portmann et al.
- Multi-centennial internal variability in the North Atlantic could drive additional warming over Europe A. Al-Yaari et al.
- Analysis of past and future droughts causing clay shrinkage in France S. Barthelemy et al.
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- Cooler than observed sea surface could have reduced impacts of storm Alex and induced mediterranean heavy precipitation event in France M. Bador et al.
- Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France Q. Tao et al.
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al.
- The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100 Y. Wang
- Modelling of atmospheric variability in gas and aerosols during the ACROSS campaign 2022 of the greater Paris area: evaluation of the meteorology, dynamics and chemistry L. Di Antonio et al.
- The Explore2–2022 climate projections dataset for impact studies over France P. Marson et al.
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males
- A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME) C. Mathison et al.
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al.
- Opinion: Why all emergent constraints are wrong but some are useful – a machine learning perspective P. Nowack & D. Watson-Parris
- Future nuclear power outages in a changing climate - A case study on two contrasted French power plants L. Collet et al.
- Estimating changes in extreme snow load in Europe as a function of global warming levels G. Evin et al.
- Economy-wide but fragile decreases in greenhouse gas emissions supported by climate policy in France C. Le Quéré
- Using regional warming levels to describe future climate change for services and adaptation: Application to the French reference trajectory for adaptation L. Corre et al.
- Combining climate models and observations to predict the time remaining until regional warming thresholds are reached E. Barnes et al.
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al.
- Drinking water availability from scattered crystalline aquifers: Climatic risks evaluated from production data in France A. Boisson et al.
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi
- Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes D. Schumacher et al.
- Towards annual updating of forced warming to date and constrained climate projections A. Ribes et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we...
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