Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Oct 2022
Research article |
| 04 Oct 2022
| 04 Oct 2022
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Julien Boé
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Saïd Qasmi
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Brigitte Dubuisson
Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Hervé Douville
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Laurent Terray
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al. 10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al. 10.1051/climat/202320011
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- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01759-5
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
- Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change R. Le Roux et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w
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- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi 10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
- Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes D. Schumacher et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Selecting and weighting dynamical models using data-driven approaches P. Le Bras et al. 10.5194/npg-31-303-2024
- The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100 Y. Wang 10.1029/2023JD039118
- Assessing observational constraints on future European climate in an out-of-sample framework C. O’Reilly et al. 10.1038/s41612-024-00648-8
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al. 10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6
- The physical science basis of climate change empowering transformations, insights from the IPCC AR6 for a climate research agenda grounded in ethics V. Masson-Delmotte & J. Males 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000451
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al. 10.1051/climat/202320011
- La sécheresse 2022 en France : retour vers le futur S. Mittelberger et al. 10.1080/27678490.2024.2304351
- Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy C. Jones et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
- Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer T. Guinaldo et al. 10.5194/os-19-629-2023
- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01759-5
- Call for caution regarding the efficacy of large-scale afforestation and its hydrological effects H. Douville et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175299
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
- Mapping the race between crop phenology and climate risks for wheat in France under climate change R. Le Roux et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-58826-w
- Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels G. Evin et al. 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x
- Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France Q. Tao et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi 10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
- Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes D. Schumacher et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01332-8
Latest update: 16 Nov 2024
Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we...
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