Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
Research article
04 Oct 2022
Research article | 04 Oct 2022

An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint

Aurélien Ribes et al.

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Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
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