Articles | Volume 13, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Julien Boé
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Saïd Qasmi
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Brigitte Dubuisson
Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Hervé Douville
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Laurent Terray
CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
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Cited
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100 Y. Wang 10.1029/2023JD039118
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al. 10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6
- Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France Q. Tao et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al. 10.1051/climat/202320011
- La sécheresse 2022 en France : retour vers le futur S. Mittelberger et al. 10.1080/27678490.2024.2304351
- Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer T. Guinaldo et al. 10.5194/os-19-629-2023
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi 10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01759-5
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
12 citations as recorded by crossref.
- The Effect of Climate Change on Forest Fire Danger and Severity in the Canadian Boreal Forests for the Period 1976–2100 Y. Wang 10.1029/2023JD039118
- Emergent Constrained Projections of Mean and Extreme Warming in China Z. Chen et al. 10.1029/2022GL102124
- Environmental and social inequities in continental France: an analysis of exposure to heat, air pollution, and lack of vegetation L. Adélaïde et al. 10.1038/s41370-024-00641-6
- Sub-regional variability of residential electricity consumption under climate change and air-conditioning scenarios in France Q. Tao et al. 10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100426
- Performance-based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe T. Palmer et al. 10.5194/esd-14-457-2023
- Dynamique partenariale autour de l’adaptation à la surchauffe urbaine dans l’agglomération messine (France) : un retour d’expérience G. Drogue et al. 10.1051/climat/202320011
- La sécheresse 2022 en France : retour vers le futur S. Mittelberger et al. 10.1080/27678490.2024.2304351
- Response of the sea surface temperature to heatwaves during the France 2022 meteorological summer T. Guinaldo et al. 10.5194/os-19-629-2023
- Heat extremes in Western Europe increasing faster than simulated due to atmospheric circulation trends R. Vautard et al. 10.1038/s41467-023-42143-3
- Past and future response of the North Atlantic warming hole to anthropogenic forcing S. Qasmi 10.5194/esd-14-685-2023
- Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism H. François et al. 10.1038/s41558-023-01759-5
- A simple hybrid statistical–dynamical downscaling method for emulating regional climate models over Western Europe. Evaluation, application, and role of added value? J. Boé et al. 10.1007/s00382-022-06552-2
Latest update: 28 Mar 2024
Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other factors to the observed warming, as well as the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and we discuss implications for climate services.
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and we...
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