Articles | Volume 12, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-635-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 May 2021
Research article |
| 21 May 2021
| 21 May 2021
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Luisenstrasse 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Julia E. M. S. Nabel
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Tammas Loughran
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Luisenstrasse 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Kerstin Hartung
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Luisenstrasse 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
now at: German Aerospace Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, 82234 Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
Ana Bastos
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
Felix Havermann
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Luisenstrasse 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Peter Anthoni
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/ Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Almut Arneth
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/ Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Daniel S. Goll
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Sebastian Lienert
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
Danica Lombardozzi
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Climate & Global Dynamics Lab, Boulder, CO 80305, USA
Sebastiaan Luyssaert
Department of Ecological Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Patrick C. McGuire
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Joe R. Melton
Climate Processes Section, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
Benjamin Poulter
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
Stephen Sitch
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
Michael O. Sullivan
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
Hanqin Tian
School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Ducan Drive, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
Anthony P. Walker
Climate Change Science Institute & Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
Andrew J. Wiltshire
College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4RJ, UK
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Soenke Zaehle
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/ Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Julia Pongratz
Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Luisenstrasse 37, 80333 Munich, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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Cited
28 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration S. Bultan et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32456-0
- Uncertainty in land use obscures global soil organic carbon stock estimates C. Gang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109585
- Climate Change and Rising CO2 Amplify the Impact of Land Use/Cover Change on Carbon Budget Differentially Across China B. Huang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003057
- Amplified warming from physiological responses to carbon dioxide reduces the potential of vegetation for climate change mitigation M. He et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00489-4
- Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink M. O’Sullivan et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8
- Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020 G. Grassi et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023
- Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016 Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108609
- Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model H. Li et al. 10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
- Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry W. Obermeier et al. 10.5194/essd-16-605-2024
- How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle? D. Crisp et al. 10.1029/2021RG000736
- Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated R. Ganzenmüller et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac70d8
- Creating Strategic Reserves to Protect Forest Carbon and Reduce Biodiversity Losses in the United States B. Law et al. 10.3390/land11050721
- Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging Topics J. Pongratz et al. 10.1007/s40641-021-00178-y
- Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020 T. Rosan et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0
- Progress and Hotspots of Research on Land-Use Carbon Emissions: A Global Perspective M. Liu et al. 10.3390/su15097245
- A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses Y. Cheng et al. 10.1073/pnas.2306775121
- Deforestation as an Anthropogenic Driver of Mercury Pollution A. Feinberg et al. 10.1021/acs.est.3c07851
- Climate change and biospheric output C. Le Quéré & N. Mayot 10.1126/science.abo1262
- Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO2inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange E. Muñoz & C. Sierra 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624
- Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2) P. Ciais et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022
- Differences in land-based mitigation estimates reconciled by separating natural and land-use CO2 fluxes at the country level C. Schwingshackl et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.11.009
- A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019 J. Minx et al. 10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021
- Global Carbon Budget 2021 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022
- Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi‐Model and Single Model Ensembles T. Loughran et al. 10.1029/2023JG007605
- Bibliometric Analysis of the Research (2000–2020) on Land-Use Carbon Emissions Based on CiteSpace X. Li et al. 10.3390/land12010165
- On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2 A. Bastos et al. 10.1186/s13021-022-00214-w
27 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023
- Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration S. Bultan et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32456-0
- Uncertainty in land use obscures global soil organic carbon stock estimates C. Gang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109585
- Climate Change and Rising CO2 Amplify the Impact of Land Use/Cover Change on Carbon Budget Differentially Across China B. Huang et al. 10.1029/2022EF003057
- Amplified warming from physiological responses to carbon dioxide reduces the potential of vegetation for climate change mitigation M. He et al. 10.1038/s43247-022-00489-4
- Process-oriented analysis of dominant sources of uncertainty in the land carbon sink M. O’Sullivan et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32416-8
- Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020 G. Grassi et al. 10.5194/essd-15-1093-2023
- Land cover change-induced decline in terrestrial gross primary production over the conterminous United States from 2001 to 2016 Y. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108609
- Reconstructions and predictions of the global carbon budget with an emission-driven Earth system model H. Li et al. 10.5194/esd-14-101-2023
- Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry W. Obermeier et al. 10.5194/essd-16-605-2024
- How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle? D. Crisp et al. 10.1029/2021RG000736
- Land-use change emissions based on high-resolution activity data substantially lower than previously estimated R. Ganzenmüller et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac70d8
- Creating Strategic Reserves to Protect Forest Carbon and Reduce Biodiversity Losses in the United States B. Law et al. 10.3390/land11050721
- Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging Topics J. Pongratz et al. 10.1007/s40641-021-00178-y
- Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020 T. Rosan et al. 10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0
- Progress and Hotspots of Research on Land-Use Carbon Emissions: A Global Perspective M. Liu et al. 10.3390/su15097245
- A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses Y. Cheng et al. 10.1073/pnas.2306775121
- Deforestation as an Anthropogenic Driver of Mercury Pollution A. Feinberg et al. 10.1021/acs.est.3c07851
- Climate change and biospheric output C. Le Quéré & N. Mayot 10.1126/science.abo1262
- Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO2inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange E. Muñoz & C. Sierra 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624
- Definitions and methods to estimate regional land carbon fluxes for the second phase of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project (RECCAP-2) P. Ciais et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1289-2022
- Differences in land-based mitigation estimates reconciled by separating natural and land-use CO2 fluxes at the country level C. Schwingshackl et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.11.009
- A comprehensive and synthetic dataset for global, regional, and national greenhouse gas emissions by sector 1970–2018 with an extension to 2019 J. Minx et al. 10.5194/essd-13-5213-2021
- Global Carbon Budget 2021 P. Friedlingstein et al. 10.5194/essd-14-1917-2022
- Limited Mitigation Potential of Forestation Under a High Emissions Scenario: Results From Multi‐Model and Single Model Ensembles T. Loughran et al. 10.1029/2023JG007605
- Bibliometric Analysis of the Research (2000–2020) on Land-Use Carbon Emissions Based on CiteSpace X. Li et al. 10.3390/land12010165
Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Apr 2024
Short summary
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes from land use and land cover changes (fLULCCs) by using the TRENDY v8 dynamic global vegetation models used in the 2019 global carbon budget. We find huge regional fLULCC differences resulting from environmental assumptions, simulated periods, and the timing of land use and land cover changes, and we argue for a method consistent across time and space and for carefully choosing the accounting period.
We provide the first spatio-temporally explicit comparison of different model-derived fluxes...
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