Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1529-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1529-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Dec 2021
Research article |
| 08 Dec 2021
| 08 Dec 2021
How can solar geoengineering and mitigation be combined under climate targets?
Mohammad M. Khabbazan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Workgroup for Economic and Infrastructure Policy (WIP), Technical University of Berlin, Straße des 17. Juni 135, 10623 Berlin, Germany
Department of Energy, Transport, and Environment (EVU), German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Mohrenstr. 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Marius Stankoweit
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Elnaz Roshan
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Hauke Schmidt
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
Hermann Held
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change (FNU), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
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We find that for mitigation scenarios, prescribing atmosphere–ocean general circulation models' (AOGCMs') respective equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs) and transient climate responses (TCRs) to the one-box model results in too high global mean temperature projections due to the information loss resulting from the reduction of complexity. The one-box model offers a good emulator of these AOGCMs, provided the AOGCM's ECS and TCR values are mapped onto effective one-box counterparts.
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Models of the Earth system used to understand climate and predict its change typically employ a grid spacing of about 100 km. Yet, many atmospheric and oceanic processes occur on much smaller scales. In this study, we present a new model configuration designed for the simulation of the components of the Earth system and their interactions at kilometer and smaller scales, allowing an explicit representation of the main drivers of the flow of energy and matter by solving the underlying equations.
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Mohammad M. Khabbazan and Hermann Held
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Uwe Mikolajewicz, Florian Ziemen, Guido Cioni, Martin Claussen, Klaus Fraedrich, Marvin Heidkamp, Cathy Hohenegger, Diego Jimenez de la Cuesta, Marie-Luise Kapsch, Alexander Lemburg, Thorsten Mauritsen, Katharina Meraner, Niklas Röber, Hauke Schmidt, Katharina D. Six, Irene Stemmler, Talia Tamarin-Brodsky, Alexander Winkler, Xiuhua Zhu, and Bjorn Stevens
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Amanda C. Maycock, Katja Matthes, Susann Tegtmeier, Hauke Schmidt, Rémi Thiéblemont, Lon Hood, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Slimane Bekki, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Oliver Kirner, Markus Kunze, Marion Marchand, Daniel R. Marsh, Martine Michou, David Plummer, Laura E. Revell, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Yousuke Yamashita, and Kohei Yoshida
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J. Federico Conte, Jorge L. Chau, Fazlul I. Laskar, Gunter Stober, Hauke Schmidt, and Peter Brown
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Martin G. Schultz, Scarlet Stadtler, Sabine Schröder, Domenico Taraborrelli, Bruno Franco, Jonathan Krefting, Alexandra Henrot, Sylvaine Ferrachat, Ulrike Lohmann, David Neubauer, Colombe Siegenthaler-Le Drian, Sebastian Wahl, Harri Kokkola, Thomas Kühn, Sebastian Rast, Hauke Schmidt, Philip Stier, Doug Kinnison, Geoffrey S. Tyndall, John J. Orlando, and Catherine Wespes
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1695–1723, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1695-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1695-2018, 2018
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The chemistry–climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ contains a detailed representation of tropospheric and stratospheric reactive chemistry and state-of-the-art parameterizations of aerosols. It thus allows for detailed investigations of chemical processes in the climate system. Evaluation of the model with various observational data yields good results, but the model has a tendency to produce too much OH in the tropics. This highlights the important interplay between atmospheric chemistry and dynamics.
Katharina Meraner and Hauke Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 1079–1089, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1079-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1079-2018, 2018
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Using a coupled Earth system model and radiative transfer modeling we show that the radiative forcing of a winter polar mesospheric ozone loss due to energetic particle precipitation is negligible. A climate impact of a mesospheric ozone loss as suggested by Andersson et al. (2014, Nature Communications) seems unlikely. A winter polar stratospheric ozone loss due to energetic particle precipitation leads to a small warming of the stratosphere, but only a few statistically significant changes.
Camilla W. Stjern, Helene Muri, Lars Ahlm, Olivier Boucher, Jason N. S. Cole, Duoying Ji, Andy Jones, Jim Haywood, Ben Kravitz, Andrew Lenton, John C. Moore, Ulrike Niemeier, Steven J. Phipps, Hauke Schmidt, Shingo Watanabe, and Jón Egill Kristjánsson
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 621–634, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-621-2018, 2018
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Marine cloud brightening (MCB) has been proposed to help limit global warming. We present here the first multi-model assessment of idealized MCB simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. While all models predict a global cooling as intended, there is considerable spread between the models both in terms of radiative forcing and the climate response, largely linked to the substantial differences in the models' representation of clouds.
Ulrike Niemeier and Hauke Schmidt
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 14871–14886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-14871-2017, 2017
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An artificial stratospheric sulfur layer heats the lower stratosphere which impacts stratospheric dynamics and transport. The quasi-biennial oscillation shuts down due to the heated sulfur layer which impacts the meridional transport of the sulfate aerosols. The tropical confinement of the sulfate is stronger and the radiative forcing efficiency of the aerosol layer decreases compared to previous studies, as does the forcing when increasing the injection height.
Jana Mintenig, Mohammad M. Khabbazan, and Hermann Held
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-117, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2017-117, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Bernd Funke, William Ball, Stefan Bender, Angela Gardini, V. Lynn Harvey, Alyn Lambert, Manuel López-Puertas, Daniel R. Marsh, Katharina Meraner, Holger Nieder, Sanna-Mari Päivärinta, Kristell Pérot, Cora E. Randall, Thomas Reddmann, Eugene Rozanov, Hauke Schmidt, Annika Seppälä, Miriam Sinnhuber, Timofei Sukhodolov, Gabriele P. Stiller, Natalia D. Tsvetkova, Pekka T. Verronen, Stefan Versick, Thomas von Clarmann, Kaley A. Walker, and Vladimir Yushkov
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 3573–3604, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3573-2017, 2017
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Simulations from eight atmospheric models have been compared to tracer and temperature observations from seven satellite instruments in order to evaluate the energetic particle indirect effect (EPP IE) during the perturbed northern hemispheric (NH) winter 2008/2009. Models are capable to reproduce the EPP IE in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The results emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events.
S. Tilmes, M. J. Mills, U. Niemeier, H. Schmidt, A. Robock, B. Kravitz, J.-F. Lamarque, G. Pitari, and J. M. English
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 43–49, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-43-2015, 2015
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A new Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) experiment “G4 specified stratospheric aerosols” (G4SSA) is proposed to investigate the impact of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering on atmosphere, chemistry, dynamics, climate, and the environment. In contrast to the earlier G4 GeoMIP experiment, which requires an emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the model, a prescribed aerosol forcing file is provided to the community, to be consistently applied to future model experiments.
S. Studer, K. Hocke, A. Schanz, H. Schmidt, and N. Kämpfer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 5905–5919, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5905-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-5905-2014, 2014
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Applying a global carbon tax on fossil was shown to lead to increased bioenergy production in four out of five scenarios. Increased bioenergy production led to global cropland changes that were up to 50 % larger by 2100 compared to the reference case (without global carbon tax). For scenarios with strong cropland expansion due to high population growth coupled with low technological change or bioenergy production, the biosphere was simulated to switch from a carbon sink into a carbon source.
Joel C. Gill and Bruce D. Malamud
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 659–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016, 2016
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Understanding interactions between hazards and other processes can help us to better understand the complex environment in which disasters occur. This enhanced understanding may help us to better manage hazards and reduce the risk of disasters occurring. Interactions (e.g. one hazard triggering another hazard) are noted between (i) natural hazards, such as earthquakes; (ii) human activity, such as groundwater abstraction; and (iii) technological hazards/disasters, such as building collapse.
A. M. Foley, P. B. Holden, N. R. Edwards, J.-F. Mercure, P. Salas, H. Pollitt, and U. Chewpreecha
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 119–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016, 2016
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We introduce GENIEem-PLASIM-ENTSem (GPem), a climate-carbon cycle emulator, showing how model emulation can be used in integrated assessment modelling to resolve regional climate impacts and systematically capture uncertainty. In a case study, we couple GPem to FTT:Power-E3MG, a non-equilibrium economic model with technology diffusion. We find that when the electricity sector is decarbonised by 90 %, further emissions reductions must be achieved in other sectors to avoid dangerous climate change.
J. Karstensen, G. P. Peters, and R. M. Andrew
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 287–309, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-287-2015, 2015
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We quantify uncertainties in estimates of global temperature change from regional and sectoral territorial- and consumption-based emissions. We find that the uncertainties are sensitive to the emission allocations, mix of pollutants, the metric used and its time horizon, and the level of aggregation of the results. Uncertainties in the final results are dominated by metric parameters and emission uncertainties, while the economic data appear to have small uncertainties at the national level.
D. J. L. Olivié and G. P. Peters
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 267–286, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-267-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-267-2013, 2013
B. Aamaas, G. P. Peters, and J. S. Fuglestvedt
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 145–170, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-145-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
C. M. Torre and M. Selicato
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 51–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-51-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-51-2013, 2013
C. Azar and D. J. A. Johansson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 139–147, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-139-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-139-2012, 2012
O. Boucher
Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 49–61, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-49-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-49-2012, 2012
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Short summary
We ask for an optimal amount of solar radiation management (SRM) in conjunction with mitigation if global warming is limited to 2 °C and regional precipitation anomalies are confined to an amount ethically compatible with the 2 °C target. Then, compared to a scenario without regional targets, most of the SRM usage is eliminated from the portfolio even if transgressing regional targets are tolerated in terms of 1/10 of the standard deviation of natural variability.
We ask for an optimal amount of solar radiation management (SRM) in conjunction with mitigation...
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