Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-721-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Research article
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04 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 04 Aug 2020

Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty

Benjamin Sanderson

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Short summary
Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.
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