Articles | Volume 10, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-569-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Sep 2019
Research article |
| 23 Sep 2019
| 23 Sep 2019
Arctic amplification under global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C in NorESM1-Happi
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Trond Iversen
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1047, Blindern, 0315 Oslo, Norway
Ingo Bethke
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for
Climate Research, P.O. Box 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway
Jens B. Debernard
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Øyvind Seland
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Mats Bentsen
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, P.O. Box 22 Nygårdstangen, 5838 Bergen, Norway
Alf Kirkevåg
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
Camille Li
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Bjerknes Centre for
Climate Research, P.O. Box 7803, 5020 Bergen, Norway
Dirk J. L. Olivié
Norwegian Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 43, Blindern, 0313 Oslo, Norway
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets M. Sigmond et al.
- Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2 L. Seland Graff et al.
- Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study C. Whaley et al.
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al.
- Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 L. Cosford et al.
- Linking midlatitudes eddy heat flux trends and polar amplification R. Chemke & L. Polvani
- Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations Ø. Seland et al.
- Mapping the dependence of black carbon radiative forcing on emission region and season P. Räisänen et al.
- Observation of Cloud Base Height and Precipitation Characteristics at a Polar Site Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard Using Ground-Based Remote Sensing and Model Reanalysis A. Asutosh et al.
- Anthropogenic black carbon as short-lived climate pollutants: Critical advancements in global-regional monitoring, characterization, emission inventory, and impact analysis S. Abdillah et al.
- An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback I. Baxter & Q. Ding
- Climate trends, variability, and changes in extreme indices under future projections over Central Oromia, Ethiopia S. Kibebew et al.
- In-situ Measurement of the Arctic Ocean for Optical Property Analysis During 2019 Cruise S. Lee & H. Kim
- The Arctic Amplification and Its Impact: A Synthesis through Satellite Observations I. Esau et al.
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Ongoing AMOC and related sea-level and temperature changes after achieving the Paris targets M. Sigmond et al.
- Sensitivity of winter Arctic amplification in NorESM2 L. Seland Graff et al.
- Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study C. Whaley et al.
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al.
- Estimating the contribution of Arctic sea-ice loss to central Asia temperature anomalies: the case of winter 2020/2021 L. Cosford et al.
- Linking midlatitudes eddy heat flux trends and polar amplification R. Chemke & L. Polvani
- Overview of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM2) and key climate response of CMIP6 DECK, historical, and scenario simulations Ø. Seland et al.
- Mapping the dependence of black carbon radiative forcing on emission region and season P. Räisänen et al.
- Observation of Cloud Base Height and Precipitation Characteristics at a Polar Site Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard Using Ground-Based Remote Sensing and Model Reanalysis A. Asutosh et al.
- Anthropogenic black carbon as short-lived climate pollutants: Critical advancements in global-regional monitoring, characterization, emission inventory, and impact analysis S. Abdillah et al.
- An Optimal Atmospheric Circulation Mode in the Arctic Favoring Strong Summertime Sea Ice Melting and Ice–Albedo Feedback I. Baxter & Q. Ding
- Climate trends, variability, and changes in extreme indices under future projections over Central Oromia, Ethiopia S. Kibebew et al.
- In-situ Measurement of the Arctic Ocean for Optical Property Analysis During 2019 Cruise S. Lee & H. Kim
- The Arctic Amplification and Its Impact: A Synthesis through Satellite Observations I. Esau et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 30 Apr 2026
Short summary
Differences between a 1.5 and a 2.0 °C warmer global climate than 1850 conditions are discussed based on a suite of global atmosphere-only, fully coupled, and slab-ocean runs with the Norwegian Earth System Model. Responses, such as the Arctic amplification of global warming, are stronger with the fully coupled and slab-ocean configurations. While ice-free Arctic summers are rare under 1.5 °C warming in the slab-ocean runs, they are estimated to occur 18 % of the time under 2.0 °C warming.
Differences between a 1.5 and a 2.0 °C warmer global climate than 1850 conditions are discussed...
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