17 Aug 2022
17 Aug 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection

Praveen Kumar Pothapakula1,a, Amelie Hoff1,b, Anika Obermann-Hellhund1, Timo Keber1, and Bodo Ahrens1 Praveen Kumar Pothapakula et al.
  • 1Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
  • anow at: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
  • bnow at: Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany

Abstract. Vb-cyclones propagating from the North-Western Mediterranean Sea (NWMS) into central Europe are often associated with extreme precipitation. This study explores the state and process chain linking the NWMS state and the Vb-cyclone precipitation in the Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments in regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate simulations with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. Two high-resolution simulations, an evaluation simulation (1951–2005) downscaling the centennial ERA-20C reanalysis and a continuous simulation (historical 1951–2005 + RCP8.5 future scenario 2006–2099) downscaling the EC-EARTH global climate data set are used for this purpose. The results show a good agreement in mean annual Vb-cyclone frequency between the evaluation (9.7 events/year) and the historical (10.1 events/year) simulations. But, there are significant discrepancies in the seasonal cycle. The mean cyclone intensity measured with minimum central pressure, track density, and precipitation rankings in the three catchments also show good agreement. The simulations for the future period show a basin-average SST warming of ≈ 2.5–3 K by the end of 21st century, but insignificant changes in Vb-cyclone frequency, mean intensity, and precipitation in the selected catchments. The NWMS sea surface temperature, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies corresponding to the Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings differ between the evaluation and historical simulations. In the evaluation simulation, Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings correspond with sea surface temperature, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies, while in the historical and the future simulation no such correspondence is seen. Especially the Adriatic and Ionian basins in the simulation driven by EC-EARTH show no sensitivity to the Vb-cyclone precipitation over the catchments. The change in the processes between evaluation and historical simulations might be due to the emergence of biases inherited from the driving EC-EARTH global simulation. The future simulation shows no significant process changes compared to the historical simulation.

Praveen Kumar Pothapakula et al.

Status: open (until 29 Oct 2022)

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  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2022-24', Anonymous Referee #1, 22 Sep 2022 reply

Praveen Kumar Pothapakula et al.

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Vb-cyclones and associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea state in regional coupled climate simulations: evaluation and projection Praven Kumar Pothapakula

Praveen Kumar Pothapakula et al.


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Short summary
The Vb-cyclones simulated with a coupled regional climate model with two different driving data sets are compared against each other in historical period, thereafter the future climate predictions were analyzed. The Vb-cyclones in two simulations agree well in terms of their occurrence, intensity and track in two simulations, though there are discrepancies in seasonal cycles and their process linking Mediterranean Sea in historical period. So significant changes were observed in the future.