Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-78
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-78

  25 Nov 2021

25 Nov 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Earth System Sensitivity: a Feedback perspective

Peter O. Passenier Peter O. Passenier
  • Independent Human Factors Professional

Abstract. In the field of climate-change research a lot of effort is devoted to the ‘narrowing down’ of uncertainties in the estimation of Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global mean warming as a result of an instantaneous doubling of the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. The present study explores possible consequences of this narrowing down of ECS for the long-term Earth system sensitivity (ESS), taking into account ‘slow’ feedbacks due to the cryosphere response (permafrost melting and ice-sheet disintegration) to a warming world. Implications for international policy making, aiming at avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, are briefly discussed.

Peter O. Passenier

Status: open (until 06 Jan 2022)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Peter O. Passenier

Peter O. Passenier

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Short summary
In the field of climate-change research a lot of effort is devoted to the ‘narrowing down’ of uncertainties in the estimation of Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The present study explores possible consequences of this narrowing down of ECS for the long-term Earth system sensitivity (ESS), taking into account ‘slow’ feedbacks due to the cryosphere response (permafrost melting and ice-sheet disintegration) to a warming world.
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