Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-74
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-74

  14 Nov 2020

14 Nov 2020

Review status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

ESD Ideas: Long-period tidal forcing in geophysics – application to ENSO, QBO, and Chandler wobble

Paul R. Pukite Paul R. Pukite
  • DAINA, Minneapolis, MN, 55421, USA

Abstract. Apart from its known impact to variations in the Earth's length-of-day (LOD) variations, the role of long-period tidal forcing cycles in geophysical behaviours has remained relatively unexplored. To extend this idea, tidal forcing is considered as a causative mechanisms to the following cyclic processes: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), and the Chandler wobble. Subtle mathematical insights are required to make the connection to the observed patterns as the underlying periods are not strictly commensurate in relation to harmonics of the tidal cycles.

There are three cyclic perturbations in the Earth's behavior that scientists have had difficulty pinning down. The actual understanding is so poor that there is no clear consensus for any of the behaviors, and the actual mechanism in each is considered an as-yet unresolved mystery. One behavior has to do with an oceanic cycle (ENSO), one with an atmospheric cycle (QBO), and one with the solid Earth (Chandler wobble). A consensus agreement is lacking in each of these three behaviors in spite of the fact that there may be an obvious yet mathematically-challenging common-mode cause tying them together. The challenge lies in simplifying the math of fluid dynamics and applying the appropriate signal processing techniques. With that, an elegant analytical framework can be applied to perhaps solve the mystery once and for all.

Paul R. Pukite

 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Paul R. Pukite

Model code and software

GeoEnergyMath Paul R. Pukite https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4268837

Paul R. Pukite

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Short summary
Important equatorial climate phenomena such as QBO and ENSO (El Nino) have never been adequately explained as deterministic processes – that is exhibiting a behavior that may be predictable. This paper suggests that QBO, ENSO, along with the geophysical behavior known as the Chandler wobble may share a common origin of lunar and solar tidal forcing. Through analytical approximations of fluid dynamics and detailed time-series analysis, matching quantitative models of these behaviors can be shown.
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