27 Nov 2015
27 Nov 2015
Early warning signals in complex ecosystems
- School of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
- School of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, University Road, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK
Correspondence: I. S. Weaver (isw1g10@soton.ac.uk)
Hide author detailsAbstract. Given the potential for elements of the Earth system to undergo rapid, hard to reverse changes in state, there is a pressing need to establish robust methods to produce early warning signals of such events. Here we present a conceptual ecosystem model in which a diversity of stable states emerge, along with rapid changes, referred to as critical transitions, as a consequence of external driving and non-linear ecological dynamics. We are able to produce robust early warning signals that precede critical transitions. However, we show that there is no correlation between the magnitude of the signal and magnitude or reversibility of any individual critical transition. We discuss these findings in the context of ecosystem management prior to and post critical transitions. We argue that an understanding of the dynamics of the systems is necessary both for management prior and post critical transitions and the effective interpretation of any early warning signal that may be produced for that system.
I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke


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RC C1224: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2016
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RC C1229: 'Review of 'Early warning signals in complex ecosystems' by I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Mar 2016
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AC C1305: 'Author response to reviews', Iain Weaver, 11 Apr 2016
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EC C1339: 'Comment from Hermann Held', Somnath Baidya Roy, 26 Sep 2016


-
RC C1224: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Mar 2016
-
RC C1229: 'Review of 'Early warning signals in complex ecosystems' by I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke', Anonymous Referee #2, 07 Mar 2016
-
AC C1305: 'Author response to reviews', Iain Weaver, 11 Apr 2016
-
EC C1339: 'Comment from Hermann Held', Somnath Baidya Roy, 26 Sep 2016
I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke
I. S. Weaver and J. G. Dyke
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