the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
| 30 Oct 2024
Future changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors
Abstract. East Asia has been identified as a key area at risk of precipitation increases resulting from global warming. East Asian summer monsoon has distinct spatiotemporal characteristics and the simulation characteristics of global climate models therefore needs to be evaluated closely to obtain a reliable projection of future precipitation patterns and associated extreme events. Using metrics for the spatiotemporal variability of monsoon precipitation over East Asia, this study evaluated the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models and analyzed future projections and uncertainty factors. Spatiotemporal precipitation patterns were simulated reasonably well by CMIP6 models but with weaker rainfall amplitudes. CMIP6 models simulated more intense precipitation than the predecessor CMIP5 ones and captured observations better. In future projections, an overall precipitation increase occurs during both the northward migration of the rain band and during peak monsoon time over East Asia and the three subregions, with stronger changes under higher emission scenarios. This increase was mainly ascribed to a thermodynamic response due to increased moisture availability. Internal climate variability and model uncertainty dominated future precipitation uncertainties. Dynamic terms explained a large portion of model uncertainty due to circulation changes, and thermodynamic terms were significantly related to scenario uncertainty.
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RC1: 'Comment on esd-2024-34', Anonymous Referee #1, 05 Dec 2024
This study investigates the future changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) using CMIP6 models. It evaluates model performance, assesses future projections, and analyzes uncertainty factors. This study is meaningful but lacks more in-depth discussions on certain aspects. It is recommended that these areas be revised and clarified prior to publication.
Major comments:
1, The object of this study is the spatiotemporal precipitation patterns in East Asian. The two metrics (the time of northward movement of the monsoon band and peak of the monsoon band) might partly describe the spatiotemporal precipitation patterns. Did authors compare to other metrics or choose other methods?
2, I would like to know, in the context of Moisture Budget Analysis, which processes influence the thermodynamic and dynamic terms—are they driven by global warming or regional sea surface temperature changes?
3, Additionally, I suggest the authors provide a more detailed analysis of regional differences and their causes. For instance, it seems to me that compared to the other two regions, the models perform less effectively in simulating precipitation over China (Huang et al., 2022; Wang et al., 2020).
Reference:
Huang, D., Liu, A., Zheng, Y., & Zhu, J. (2022). Inter-Model Spread of the Simulated East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall and the Associated Atmospheric Circulations From the CMIP6 Models. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127, e2022JD037371. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037371
Wang, B., Jin, C., & Liu, J. (2020). Understanding Future Change of Global Monsoons Projected by CMIP6 Models. Journal of Climate, 33(15), 6471–6489. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0993.1
4, Based on Fig.4, it indicates that the contribution of M to total uncertainty is dominant. What are the physical mechanisms for the model uncertainty is an important question. That means quantifying the model uncertainties and trace the sources are also important to understand the precipitation regime changes in the warming future. As I understand this is not the key focus of the paper, I think you could provide some hypotheses in the discussion section.
Minor comments
1, Line 61: predictàprojection?
2, Line 120, it is suggested to clarify the meaning of the subscript “REF” for better understanding.
3, Authors have compared the results based on CMIP5 and CMIP6. However, it seems less differences between them.
4, Fig.1 ,Fig.2 , it should clarify how does red and blue boxes define.
5, Fig.3, What does the dashed lines mean?
Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34-RC1 -
RC2: 'Comment on esd-2024-34', Anonymous Referee #2, 09 Dec 2024
Comments on "Future changes in spatiotemporal precipitation patterns of the East Asian summer monsoon and associated uncertainty factors" by Yeon-Hee Kim and Seung-Ki Min
The manuscript shows precipitation patterns in East Asia and three subregions using matrices. It compared projections in precipitation changes between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models of different SSP scenarios. The results are important, but the manuscript does not provide a physical basis for the conclusions. I suggest including the points below before publication.
The basis for choosing precipitation indices (1) the time of Northward migration of the rainband and (2) the peak of the monsoon band should be explained in detail although adopted from previous literature. What other monsoon indices were reported in previous studies? What is the advantage of choosing the above two monsoon indices should be given.
The scientific basis for increased precipitation in different SSP scenarios and discussions on the associated physical mechanism is shallow.
Discussions on thermodynamic effects on moisture thereby on precipitation enhancement should be elaborated.
Influence of Wind and SST changes analysis should be provided to support the results.
How does Hadley circulation change in different SSP scenarios?
Results on uncertainty factors do not quantify the uncertainty.
Precipitation values documents in section 3.1 should be tabulated
Use of short forms M, I, TH …etc should be avoided although they are defined.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34-RC2 -
RC3: 'Comment on esd-2024-34', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Dec 2024
I recommend that the manuscript undergo major revision before publication. Below are my comments:
Based on the title and the introduction, the paper aims to provide readers with a more comprehensive and detailed understanding of the changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of East Asian summer precipitation under warming scenarios. However, the results do not achieve this goal.
The spatiotemporal precipitation pattern is a key focus of the paper, but in this study, its primary role appears to be limited to the division into two time periods. This approach leads to the following issues:
What kind of change in the spatiotemporal precipitation pattern corresponds to the different changes in these two time periods? While indices can simplify the problem, the author’s conclusions should focus on the precipitation pattern. However, in the abstract, the author merely states that precipitation increases across two periods and three regions. This undermines the significance of the indices painstakingly used throughout the paper.
Does the authors suggest that the temporal evolution of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation can be sufficiently represented by averaging over just two time periods? If so, I think this point needs further evidence to support it.
L45-55: Regarding the uncertainties in the East Asian monsoon projections, I suggest adding the following references:Zhou S, Huang G, Huang P. A bias-corrected projection for the changes in East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming. Climate Dynamics, 2019,54(1-2): 1-16.
Zhou S, Huang G, Huang P. Changes in the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall under global warming: Moisture budget decompositions and the sources of uncertainty. Climate Dynamics, 2018, 51(4): 1363–1373.
Zhou S, Huang P, Huang G, et al. Leading source and constraint on the systematic spread of the changes in East Asian and western North Pacific summer monsoon. Environmental Research Letters, 2019, 14(12): 124059.Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-34-RC3
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