Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-10
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-10
04 Mar 2024
 | 04 Mar 2024
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming

Mikhail Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev

Abstract. There is no more consequential scientific matter today than global warming. The societal and policy implications, however, hinge upon the attribution of that warming to human activity, and specifically, continued societal reliance on the burning of fossil fuels. It was recently suggested that this warming can be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that were the case, it would have profound implications. We have accessed the validity of the claim using a statistical technique (the method of conditional dispersion) that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.

Mikhail Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev

Status: open (until 11 May 2024)

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Mikhail Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev
Mikhail Verbitsky, Michael E. Mann, and Dmitry Volobuev

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Short summary
It was recently suggested that global warming can be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that were the case, it would have profound implications. We have accessed the validity of the claim using a statistical technique that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.
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