Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16
15 Jul 2024
 | 15 Jul 2024
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ESD and is expected to appear here in due course.

The European summer heatwave 2019 – a regional storyline perspective

Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Abstract. The number and intensity of heat waves have increased in the recent past, along with anthropogenic climate change. This poses challenges to many communities and raises the need to develop adaptation measures based on more accurate information regarding regional to local changes in temperature extremes and their impacts. While the general increase in global mean temperature is well established, current global climate projections show a large model spread regarding possible future circulation changes. To isolate the more certain thermodynamic response from the less certain dynamical response to anthropogenic climate change, we employ an event-based storyline approach comprising three steps. Firstly, the large-scale circulation in the free troposphere was spectrally nudged to the ERA5-reanalyses in the global coupled climate model AWI-CM-1.1-MR for a recent period (2017–2022), corresponding to +1.4 K global warming, and repeated under pre-industrial, +2 K, +3 K, and +4 K global warming climates. Secondly, the global storylines were dynamically downscaled with the regional ICON-CLM model to the Euro-CORDEX domain with a horizontal resolution of 12 km and, thirdly, to a Central-European (German) domain with a resolution of 3 km. The present study focuses on the 2019 summer heatwaves over Central Europe. We demonstrate the added value of downscaling global storyline integrations, indicating a significant improvement in present-day temperature patterns and a reduced error in daily 2 m temperature relative to observations in Central Europe. The magnitude of the heatwave temperature response significantly exceeds the globally modelled background warming, with a distinct spatial and temporal variation in the regional increments. Our simulations indicate a general linear dependency of the 2 m temperature response to the global warming level: the warming rates during the July 2019 heatwave ranged between factors of 2 and 3 in Central Europe, resulting in an anthropogenic warming of 8 to 12 °C in the +4 K climate. The spatial extent and the duration of the heat wave are also amplified in the warmer climates. With this three-step downscaling approach, we gain new insights into possible future changes in heat extremes in Central Europe, which apparently surpass global warming trends. Along with its scientific value, our method provides ways to facilitate communication of regional climate change information to the users.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2024-16', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Aug 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tatiana Klimiuk, 20 Sep 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2024-16', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tatiana Klimiuk, 27 Sep 2024

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2024-16', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Aug 2024
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Tatiana Klimiuk, 20 Sep 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2024-16', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 Aug 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Tatiana Klimiuk, 27 Sep 2024
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto

Viewed

Total article views: 927 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
613 82 232 927 39 16 16
  • HTML: 613
  • PDF: 82
  • XML: 232
  • Total: 927
  • Supplement: 39
  • BibTeX: 16
  • EndNote: 16
Views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jul 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 15 Jul 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 917 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 917 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 

Cited

Latest update: 12 Dec 2024
Download
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in Central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we offer insights into how future heatwaves might spread, persist longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Altmetrics