Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-31
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2023-31
06 Nov 2023
 | 06 Nov 2023
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Projected changes in land carbon store over the 21st century: what contributions from land-use change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition?

Jaime Andres Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin

Abstract. Earth System Models (ESM) represent the time evolution of the biophysical (energy, water cycles) and biogeochemical (carbon cycle) components of the Earth. When used for near-future projections in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), they use as forcings the evolution of greenhouse gas and other pollutant concentrations and land-use changes simulated by an ensemble of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) for a combination of socio-economic pathways and mitigation targets (SSPs). More precisely, only one IAM output is used as representative of a single SSP while the inter-IAM spread is large for ammonia emissions and land-use changes, for instance. This makes the comparison of key ESM diagnostics among SSPs significantly noisy, without the capacity of disentangling SSP-driven and IAM-driven factors. In this paper, we quantify the projected change in land carbon store (CLCS) for the different SSPs with an advanced version of a land surface model embedded into IPSL-CM6 ESM. Through a set of land-only factorial simulations, we specifically aim at estimating the CLCS uncertainties associated with land-use change and nitrogen deposition trajectories. We showed that the spread of the simulated change in global land carbon store induced by the uncertainty on land-use changes is slightly larger than the one associated with the uncertainty on atmospheric CO2. Globally, uncertainty associated with N depositions is responsible for a spread in CLCS lower by a factor three, than the one driven by atmospheric CO2 or land-use changes. Our study calls for making available additional IAM scenarios for each SSP to be used in the next CMIP exercise, in order to specifically assess the IAM-related uncertainty impacts on the carbon cycle and the climate system.

Jaime Andres Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2023-31', Anonymous Referee #1, 04 Dec 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2023-31', Anonymous Referee #2, 11 Jan 2024
Jaime Andres Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin
Jaime Andres Riano Sanchez, Nicolas Vuichard, and Philippe Peylin

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Short summary
We quantify the projected change in land carbon store (CLCS) for different socio-economic scenarios (SSP). Using factorial simulations of a land surface model, we estimate the CLCS uncertainties associated with land-use change (LUC) and nitrogen (N) deposition trajectories. Our study highlights the need for delivering additional LUC and N deposition trajectories from Integrated assessment models for each SSP in order to accurately assess their impacts on the carbon cycle and the climate.
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