14 Jul 2023
 | 14 Jul 2023
Status: a revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ESD.

Consistent increase of East Asian Summer Monsoon rainfall and its variability under climate change over China in 34 coupled climate models

Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann

Abstract. The East Asia Monsoon (EAM) dominates the climate over the densely populated East China and adjacent regions and is therefore influencing a fifth of the world's population. Thus, it is highly relevant to assess the changes of the central characteristics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) under future warming in the latest generation of coupled climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Using 34 CMIP6 models we show that all models that capture the EASM in the reference period 1995–2014 within two standard deviations project an increase in June–August rainfall independent of the underlying emission scenario. The multi-model mean increase is 17.2 % under SSP5-8.5, 12.7 % under SSP3-7.0, 11.9 % under SSP2-4.5 and 11.2 % under SSP1-2.6 in the period 2081–2100 compared to 1995–2014. For China, the projected monsoon increase is slightly higher (12.1 % under SSP1-2.6 and 19.1 % under SSP5-8.5). The EASM rainfall will particularly intensify in South-East China, Taiwan as well as North Korea. The multi-model mean indicates a linear relationship of the EASM rainfall depending on the global mean temperature relatively independent of the underlying scenario: Per degree of global warming, the rainfall is projected to increase by 0.14 mm/day which refers to 3 % of rainfall in the reference period. It is thus predominately showing a "wet-region-get-wetter" pattern. The interannual variability is also robustly projected to increase between 7.0 % under SSP1-2.6 and 31.4 % under SSP5-8.5 in the multi-model mean between 2050–2100 and 1965–2015. Comparing the same periods, extremely wet seasons are projected to occur 6.5-times more often under SSP5-8.5.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2023-19', Anonymous Referee #1, 12 Aug 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Anja Katzenberger, 30 Nov 2023
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2023-19', Anonymous Referee #2, 19 Aug 2023
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Anja Katzenberger, 30 Nov 2023
Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann
Anja Katzenberger and Anders Levermann


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Short summary
A fifth of the world population lives in East China whose climate is dominated by the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM). Therefore, it is important to know how the EASM will change under global warming. Here, we use the data of 34 climate models of the latest generation to understand how the EASM will change throughout the 21st century. The models project that the EASM will intensify and the variability between the years will increase associated with an increase of extremely wet seasons.