11 Mar 2022
11 Mar 2022
Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint

Aurélien Ribes1, Julien Boé2, Saïd Qasmi1, Brigitte Dubuisson3, Hervé Douville1, and Laurent Terray2 Aurélien Ribes et al.
  • 1CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 2CECI, Université de Toulouse, CERFACS, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 3Météo-France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France

Abstract. Building on CMIP6 climate simulations, updated global and regional observations, and recently introduced statistical methods, we provide an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. Following the IPCC AR6 and recent global scale studies, we combine model results with observations to constrain climate change at the regional scale. Over Mainland France, the forced warming in 2020 wrt 1900–1930 is assessed to be 1.66 [1.41 to 1.90] °C, i.e., in the upper range of the CMIP6 estimates, and is almost entirely human-induced. A refined view of the seasonality of this past warming is provided through updated daily climate normals. Projected warming in response to an intermediate emission scenario is assessed to be 3.8 °C (2.9 to 4.8 °C) in 2100, and rises up to 6.7 [5.2 to 8.2] °C in a very high emission scenario, i.e., substantially higher than in previous ensembles of global and regional simulations. Winter and summer warming are expected to be about 15 % lower than, and 30 % higher than the annual mean warming, respectively, for all scenarios and time periods. This work highlights the importance of combining various lines of evidence, including model and observed data, to deliver the most reliable climate information. This refined regional assessment can feed adaptation planning for a range of activities and provides additional rationale for urgent climate action. Code is made available to facilitate replication over other areas or political entities.

Aurélien Ribes et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • CC1: 'Comment on esd-2022-7', Xu Liu, 11 Apr 2022
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2022-7', Anonymous Referee #1, 11 Apr 2022
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Aurélien Ribes, 09 May 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2022-7', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Apr 2022
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Aurélien Ribes, 09 May 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2022-7', Francis Zwiers, 12 May 2022

Aurélien Ribes et al.

Data sets

Code and data of Ribes et al. (2022) Aurélien Ribes

Aurélien Ribes et al.


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Short summary
We use a novel statistical method to combine climate simulations and observations, and deliver an updated assessment of past and future warming over France. As a key result, we find that the warming over that region was underestimated in previous multi-model ensembles, by up to 50 %. We also assess the contribution of greenhouse gases, aerosols and other factors to the observed warming, the impact on the seasonal temperature cycle, and discuss implications for climate services.