Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-9
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-9

  31 Mar 2021

31 Mar 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high resolution, site–specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

Marco Hofmann1, Claudia Volosciuk2, Martin Dubrovský3,4, Douglas Maraun5, and Hans R. Schultz1 Marco Hofmann et al.
  • 1Department of General and Organic Viticulture, Hochschule Geisenheim University, Geisenheim, 65366, Germany
  • 2Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, CH-1211, Switzerland
  • 3Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, 141 00, Czech Republic
  • 4Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic
  • 5Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, 8010, Austria

Abstract. Extended periods without precipitation observed for example in Central Europe including Germany during the seasons from 2018 to 2020, can lead to water deficit and yield and quality losses for grape and wine production. However, irrigation infrastructure is largely non–existent. Regional climate models project changes of precipitation amounts and patterns, indicating an increase in frequency of occurrence of comparable situations in the future. In order to assess possible impacts of climate change on the water budget of grapevines, a water balance model was developed, which accounts for the large heterogeneity of vineyards with respect to their soil water storage capacity, evapotranspiration as a function of slope and aspect, and viticultural management practices. The model was fed with data from soil maps (soil type and plant available water capacity), a digital elevation model, the European Union (EU) vineyard–register, observed weather data and future weather data provided by regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator. This allowed conducting a risk assessment of the drought stress occurrence for the wine–producing regions Rheingau and Hessische Bergstraße in Germany on the scale of individual vineyard plots. The simulations showed that the risk for drought stress varies substantially between vineyard sites but might increase for steep–slope regions in the future. Possible adaptation measures depend highly on local conditions and to make targeted use of the resource water, an intense interplay of different wine-industry stakeholders, research, knowledge transfer, and local authorities will be required.

Marco Hofmann et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-9', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Apr 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-9', Anonymous Referee #2, 03 May 2021

Marco Hofmann et al.

Marco Hofmann et al.

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Short summary
We modelled water budget developments of viticultural growing regions on the spatial scale of individual vineyard plots with respect to landscape features like the available water capacity of the soils, slope and aspect of the sites. We used an ensemble of climate simulations and focused on the occurrence of drought stress. The results show a high bandwidth of projected changes where the risk of potential drought stress becomes more apparent in steep slope regions.
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