Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-65
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-65

  30 Jul 2021

30 Jul 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

The Mediterranean climate change hotspot in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections

Josep Cos1, Francisco Doblas-Reyes1,2, Martin Jury1, Raül Marcos1, Pièrre-Antoine Bretonnière1, and Margarida Samsó1 Josep Cos et al.
  • 1Earth Sciences Department, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
  • 2Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain

Abstract. The increased warming trend and precipitation decline in the Mediterranean region makes it a climate change hotspot. We compare projections of multiple CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical and scenario simulations to quantify the impacts of the already changing climate in the region. In particular, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation during the 21st century following scenarios RCP2.6, SSP1-2.6, RCP4.5, SSP2-4.5, RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, as well as the HighResMIP high resolution experiments. A model weighting scheme is applied to obtain constrained estimates of projected changes, which accounts for historical model performance and inter-independence of the multi-model ensembles, using an observational ensemble as reference. Results indicate a robust and significant warming over the Mediterranean region along the 21st century over all seasons, ensembles and experiments. The Mediterranean amplified warming with respect to the global mean is mainly found during summer. The temperature changes vary between CMIPs, being CMIP6 the ensemble that projects a stronger warming. Contrarily to temperature projections, precipitation changes show greater uncertainties and spatial heterogeneity. However, a robust and significant precipitation decline is projected over large parts of the region during summer for the high emission scenario. While there is less disagreement in projected precipitation between CMIP5 and CMIP6, the latter shows larger precipitation declines in some regions. Results obtained from the model weighting scheme indicate increases in CMIP5 and reductions in CMIP6 warming trends, thereby reducing the distance between both multi-model ensembles.

Josep Cos et al.

Status: open (until 25 Sep 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-65', Anonymous Referee #1, 16 Aug 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-65', Anonymous Referee #2, 02 Sep 2021 reply
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-65', Anonymous Referee #3, 24 Sep 2021 reply

Josep Cos et al.

Data sets

BerkeleyEarth Elisabeth Muller, Richard Muller, Robert Rhode, Zeke Hausfather, Judith Sissener, Marie Mossimann, Kari Hulac http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/auto/Global/Gridded/Complete_TAVG_LatLong1.nc

HadSLP Rob Allan and Tara Ansell https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3937.1

CMIP5 Multiple research centers (refer to the ESGF data repository) https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip5/

CMIP6 Multiple research centers (refer to DOI) https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/cmip6-liu/?source_id=ACCESS-CM2,ACCESS-ESM1-5,AWI-CM-1-1-MR,BCC-CSM2-MR,CAMS-CSM1-0,CAS-ESM2-0,CESM2-WACCM,CIESM,CMCC-CM2-SR5,CNRM-CM6-1,CNRM-ESM2-1,CanESM5-CanOE,EC-Earth3,FGOALS-f3-L,FGOALS-g3,FIO-ESM-2-0,GFDL-ESM4,GISS

ERA5 Hans Hersbach, Bill Bell, Paul Berrisford, Shoji Hirahara, András Horányi, Joaquín Muñoz-Sabater, Julien Nicolas, Carole Peubey, Raluca Radu, Dinand Schepers, Adrian Simmons, Cornel Soci, Saleh Abdalla, Xavier Abellan, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Gionata Biavati, Jean Bidlot, Massimo Bonavita, Giovanna De Chiara, Per Dahlgren, Dick Dee, Michail Diamantakis, Rossana Dragani, Johannes Flemming, Richard Forbes, Manuel Fuentes, Alan Geer, Leo Haimberger, Sean Healy, Robin J. Hogan, Elías Hólm, Marta Janisková, Sarah Keeley, Patrick Laloyaux, Philippe Lopez, Cristina Lupu, Gabor Radnoti, Patricia de Rosnay, Iryna Rozum, Freja Vamborg, Sebastien Villaume, Jean-Noël Thépaut https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803

JRA55 Shinya KOBAYASHI, Yukinari OTA, Yayoi HARADA, Ayataka EBITA, Masami MORIYA, Hirokatsu ONODA, Kazutoshi ONOGI, Hirotaka KAMAHORI, Chiaki KOBAYASHI, Hirokazu ENDO, Kengo MIYAOKA, Kiyotoshi TAKAHASHI https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html#reanalysis

GPCC Schneider, Udo; Becker, Andreas; Finger, Peter; Rustemeier, Elke; Ziese, Markus https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_GPCC/FD_M_V2020_025

CRU Ian Harris, Timothy J. Osborn, Phil Jones & David Lister https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.04/cruts.2004151855.v4.04/

Model code and software

Diagnostics code Josep Cos https://doi.org/10.23728/b2share.ec53147170d6440aa3da66fdb8879398

ESMValCore Andela, Bouwe; Broetz, Bjoern; de Mora, Lee; Drost, Niels; Eyring, Veronika; Koldunov, Nikolay; Lauer, Axel; Predoi, Valeriu; Righi, Mattia; Schlund, Manuel; Vegas-Regidor, Javier; Zimmermann, Klaus; Bock, Lisa; Diblen, Faruk; Dreyer, Laura; Earnshaw, Paul; Hassler, Birgit; Little, Bill; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Smeets, Stef; Camphuijsen, Jaro; Gier, Bettina K.; Weigel, Katja; Hauser, Mathias; Kalverla, Peter; Galytska, Evgenia; Cos, Josep; Pelupessy, Inti; Koirala, Sujan; Stacke, Tobias; Alidoost, Sarah; Jury, Martin; Sénési, Stéphane https://zenodo.org/record/4947127#.YOa2BsBR1QI

ESMValTool Andela, Bouwe; Broetz, Bjoern; de Mora, Lee; Drost, Niels; Eyring, Veronika; Koldunov, Nikolay; Lauer, Axel; Mueller, Benjamin; Predoi, Valeriu; Righi, Mattia; Schlund, Manuel; Vegas-Regidor, Javier; Zimmermann, Klaus; Adeniyi, Kemisola; Arnone, Enrico; Bellprat, Omar; Berg, Peter; Bock, Lisa; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Carvalhais, Nuno; Cionni, Irene; Cortesi, Nicola; Corti, Susanna; Crezee, Bas; Davin, Edouard Leopold; Davini, Paolo; Deser, Clara; Diblen, Faruk; Docquier, David; Dreyer, Laura; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Earnshaw, Paul; Gier, Bettina; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Goodman, Paul; Hagemann, Stefan; von Hardenberg, Jost; Hassler, Birgit; Hunter, Alasdair; Kadow, Christopher; Kindermann, Stephan; Koirala, Sujan; Lledó, Llorenç; Lejeune, Quentin; Lembo, Valerio; Little, Bill; Loosveldt-Tomas, Saskia; Lorenz, Ruth; Lovato, Tomas; Lucarini, Valerio; Massonnet, François; Mohr, Christian Wilhelm; Moreno-Chamarro, Eduardo; Amarjiit, Pandde; Pérez-Zanón, Núria; Phillips, Adam; Russell, Joellen; Sandstad, Marit; Sellar, Alistair; Senftleben, Daniel; Serva, Federico; Sillmann, Jana; Stacke, Tobias; Swaminathan, Ranjini; Torralba, Verónica; Weigel, Katja https://zenodo.org/record/4562215#.YOWlhTqxVH4

Josep Cos et al.

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Short summary
The Mediterranean is identified to be more affected by climate change than other regions. We find that amplified warming during summer and annual precipitation declines are expected for the 21st-century and that the magnitude of the changes will mainly depend on greenhouse gas emissions. By applying a method that gives more importance to models with greater performance and independence, we find that the differences between the last two community modelling efforts are reduced in the region.
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