Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-51
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-51

  17 Aug 2021

17 Aug 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Atmospheric regional climate projections for the Baltic Sea Region until 2100

Ole B. Christensen1, Erik Kjellström2, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger3, and H. E. Markus Meier3 Ole B. Christensen et al.
  • 1Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
  • 2Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
  • 3Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany
  • deceased

Abstract. The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change; it is a region with spatially varying climate and diverse ecosystems, but also under pressure due to high population in large parts of the area. Climate change impacts could easily exacerbate other anthropogenic stressors such as biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea considerably. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. In this review paper, we will concentrate on a presentation of recent climate projections from both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean regional climate models. The recent regional climate model projections strengthen the picture from previous assessments. This includes a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the southern half during summer. Consequently, the new results lend more credibility to estimates of uncertainties and robust features of future climate change. Furthermore, the larger number of scenarios gives opportunities to better address impacts of mitigation measures. The coupled atmosphere-ocean model locally modifies the climate change signal relative to that in the stand-alone atmosphere regional climate model. Differences are largest in areas where the coupled system arrives at different sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice conditions.

Ole B. Christensen et al.

Status: open (until 29 Sep 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-51', Jouni Räisänen, 08 Sep 2021 reply
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-51', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Sep 2021 reply
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-51', Anonymous Referee #3, 17 Sep 2021 reply

Ole B. Christensen et al.

Ole B. Christensen et al.

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Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
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