Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-40
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-40

  17 Jun 2021

17 Jun 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Weather-induced crop failure events under climate change: a storyline approach

Henrique M. D. Goulart1,2, Karin van der Wiel3, Christian Folberth4, Juraj Balkovic4, and Bart van den Hurk1,2 Henrique M. D. Goulart et al.
  • 1Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands
  • 2Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands
  • 3Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands
  • 4International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystem Services and Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract. Unfavourable weather is a common cause for crop failures all over the world. Whilst extreme weather conditions may cause extreme impacts, crop failure commonly is induced by the occurrence of multiple and combined anomalous meteorological drivers. For these cases, the explanation of conditions leading to crop failure is complex, as the links connecting weather and crop yield can be multiple and non-linear. Furthermore, climate change is likely to perturb the meteorological conditions, possibly altering the occurrences of crop failures or leading to unprecedented drivers of extreme impacts. The goal of this study is to identify important meteorological drivers that cause crop failures and to explore changes in crop failures due to global warming. For that, we focus on a historical failure event, the extreme low soybean production during the 2012 season in the Midwest US. We first train a random forest model to identify the most relevant meteorological drivers of historical crop failures and to predict crop failure probabilities. Second, we explore the influence of global warming on crop failures and on the structure of compound drivers. We use large ensembles from the EC-Earth global climate model, corresponding to present day, pre-industrial +2 °C and 3 °C warming respectively, to isolate the global warming component. Finally, we explore the meteorological conditions inductive for the 2012 crop failure, and construct analogues of these failure conditions in future climate settings. Unlike present-day conditions, future warming may increase the probability of crop failures resulting from univariate meteorological features, reducing the importance of compound failure drivers. Impact-analogues show a significant increase under global warming, with changes in the corresponding drivers. This has implications for risk assessment, as changing drivers of extreme impact events are highly relevant.

Henrique M. D. Goulart et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-40', Anonymous Referee #1, 20 Jul 2021
  • RC2: 'Comment on esd-2021-40', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Jul 2021
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-40', Anonymous Referee #3, 05 Aug 2021

Henrique M. D. Goulart et al.

Henrique M. D. Goulart et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 769 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
577 176 16 769 8 13
  • HTML: 577
  • PDF: 176
  • XML: 16
  • Total: 769
  • BibTeX: 8
  • EndNote: 13
Views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jun 2021)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 17 Jun 2021)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 624 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 624 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 18 Oct 2021
Download
Short summary
Agriculture is sensitive to weather conditions and to climate change. We identify the weather conditions linked to soybean failures and explore changes related to climate change. Additionally, we build future versions of a historical extreme season under future climate scenarios. Results show that soybean failures are likely to increase with climate change. Future events with similar physical conditions to the extreme season are not expected to increase, but events with similar impacts are.
Altmetrics