Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-26
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-26

  12 May 2021

12 May 2021

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

ESD Ideas: Planetary Antifragility: A new dimension in the definition of the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Oliver López-Corona1,2 and Melanie Kolb3 Oliver López-Corona and Melanie Kolb
  • 1Cátedras CONACyT, CONABIO, CDMX, Mexico
  • 2Centro de Ciencias de la Complejidad (C3),Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), CDMX, Mexico
  • 3Institute of Geography, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), CDMX, Mexico

Abstract. The Safe Operating Space for Humanity is not fully characterized by the state values of Planetary Boundaries because not only does interaction among them matter, but more importantly the perturbation response capacity dimension is missing. We present a systems dynamics measure of this perturbation response capacity under the Antifragility framework. Here we define, for the first time, Planetary Antifragility as the changes of shortwave global albedo anomalies for the July months in the northern hemisphere from 1982 to 2010, which shows a net reduction of 47.63 %. This loss in Antifragility implies a compounding problem because human perturbations such as climate or land-use changes are increasing but at the same time, the planet is losing its capacity to respond to them.

Oliver López-Corona and Melanie Kolb

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Karo Michaelian, 28 May 2021
    • AC4: 'Reply on RC1', Oliver López-Corona, 12 Jun 2021
      • AC5: 'Reply on AC4', Oliver López-Corona, 15 Jun 2021
      • AC6: 'Reply on AC4', Oliver López-Corona, 15 Jun 2021
  • CC1: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Richard Rosen, 06 Jun 2021
    • AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Oliver López-Corona, 06 Jun 2021
      • CC2: 'Reply on AC1', Richard Rosen, 07 Jun 2021
        • AC2: 'Reply on CC2', Oliver López-Corona, 07 Jun 2021
        • RC2: 'Reply on CC2', Karo Michaelian, 08 Jun 2021
          • AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Oliver López-Corona, 08 Jun 2021
          • CC3: 'Reply on RC2', Richard Rosen, 08 Jun 2021
  • CC4: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Richard Rosen, 12 Jun 2021
  • RC3: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Anonymous Referee #2, 06 Jul 2021
    • CC5: 'Reply on RC3', Richard Rosen, 06 Jul 2021
    • AC7: 'Reply on RC3', Oliver López-Corona, 07 Jul 2021
  • CC6: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Mahesh Lal Maskey, 06 Jul 2021
    • AC8: 'Reply on CC6', Oliver López-Corona, 07 Jul 2021
  • RC4: 'Comment on esd-2021-26', Anonymous Referee #3, 06 Jul 2021
    • AC9: 'Reply on RC4', Oliver López-Corona, 07 Jul 2021

Oliver López-Corona and Melanie Kolb

Oliver López-Corona and Melanie Kolb

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Short summary
Climate Change, the loss of biodiversity or land-use change among others, has been recognized as main human perturbations to Earth system dynamics, the so called Planetary Boundaries. Effort has been made to understand how to define a Safe Operating Space for Humanity (accepted leves of these perturbations). In this work we address the problem assessing the Earth's capacity to respond to these perturbations, a capacity that the planet is losing.
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