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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-9
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-9
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  16 Mar 2020

16 Mar 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal ESD and is expected to appear here in due course.

A continued role of Short-Lived Climate Forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Marianne T. Lund1, Borgar Aamaas1, Camilla W. Stjern1, Zbigniew Klimont2, Terje K. Berntsen1,3, and Bjørn H. Samset1 Marianne T. Lund et al.
  • 1CICERO, Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
  • 2International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • 3Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway

Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and Sustainable Development Goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming, and restate the importance of mitigating methane emissions, from agriculture, waste management and energy productions, as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. East Asia, North America and Europe remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtakes Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. We find that SLCFs will continue to play a role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aiming also at decision-makers, to support further studies into the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.

Marianne T. Lund et al.

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Marianne T. Lund et al.

Marianne T. Lund et al.

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Latest update: 20 Oct 2020
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Short summary
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals require both near-zero levels of long-lived greenhouse gases and deep cuts in emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Here we quantify the near- and long-term global temperature impacts of emissions of individual SLCFs and CO2 from 7 economic sectors in 13 regions in order to provide the detailed knowledge needed to design efficient mitigation strategies at the sectoral and regional levels.
Achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals require both near-zero levels of long-lived...
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