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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System using a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High, which have been assumed independent previously, as the main drivers.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-69
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-69

  05 Oct 2020

05 Oct 2020

Review status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season

Frederik Wolf1,2, Ugur Ozturk1,3, Kevin Cheung4, and Reik V. Donner1,5 Frederik Wolf et al.
  • 1Research Domain 4 – Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) – Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstraße 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany
  • 3Helmholtz Centre Potsdam – GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 4Climate Research, Climate and Atmospheric Science, NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, 4 Parramatta Square, Parramatta NSW 2150, Australia
  • 5Department of Water, Environment, Construction, and Safety, Magdeburg – Stendal University of Applied Sciences, Breitscheidstraße 2, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany

Abstract. Investigating the synchrony and interdependency of heavy rainfall occurrences is crucial to understand the underlying physical mechanisms and reduce physical and economic damages by improved forecasting strategies. In this context, studies utilizing functional network representations have recently contributed to significant advances in the understanding and prediction of extreme weather events. To thoroughly expand on previous works employing the latter framework to the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) system, we focus here on changes in the spatial organization of synchronous heavy precipitation events across the monsoon season (April to August) by studying the temporal evolution of corresponding network characteristics in terms of a sliding window approach. Specifically, we utilize functional climate networks together with event coincidence analysis for identifying and characterizing synchronous activity from daily rainfall estimates between 1998 and 2018. Our results demonstrate that the formation of the Baiu front as a main feature of the EASM is reflected by a double-band structure of synchronous heavy rainfall with two centers north and south of the front. Although the two separated bands are strongly related to either low- or high-level winds which are commonly assumed to be independent, we provide evidence that it is rather their mutual interconnectivity that changes during the different phases of the EASM season in a characteristic way. Our findings shed some new light on the interplay between tropical and extratropical factors controlling the EASM intraseasonal evolution, which could potentially help to improve future forecasts of the Baiu onset in different regions of East Asia.

Frederik Wolf et al.

 
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Frederik Wolf et al.

Frederik Wolf et al.

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Short summary
Motivated by a lacking onset prediction scheme, we examine the temporal evolution of synchronous heavy rainfall associated with the East Asian Monsoon System using a network approach. We find, that the evolution of the Baiu front is associated with the formation of a spatially separated double band of synchronous rainfall. Furthermore, we identify the South Asian Anticyclone and the North Pacific Subtropical High, which have been assumed independent previously, as the main drivers.
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