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Earth System Dynamics An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-43
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-43
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  30 Jun 2020

30 Jun 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal ESD.

Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning described by Langevin dynamics

Jelle van den Berk1, Sybren Drijfhout1,2, and Wilco Hazeleger2 Jelle van den Berk et al.
  • 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands
  • 2Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Abstract. Using a machine learning technique, collapse trajectories of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from climate models of intermediate complexity are fitted to a simple model based on the Langevin equation. A total of six parameters are sufficient to quantitatively describe the collapses seen in these simulations under a freshwater forcing. Reversing the freshwater forcing results in asymmetric behaviour that is less well captured and would require a more complicated model.

Jelle van den Berk et al.

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Jelle van den Berk et al.

Jelle van den Berk et al.

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Short summary
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can be described by six parameters and Langevin dynamics. These parameters can be found by a machine learning technique when applied to sample set of collapses seen in climate models of intermediate complexity. With this parametrisation, it might be possible to estimate how much freshwater is needed to observe a collapse in more complicated models and reality.
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can be described by six parameters...
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