References

ESD

Earth System Dynamics

ESD

Earth Syst. Dynam.

2190-4987

Copernicus Publications

Göttingen, Germany

10.5194/esd-4-347-2013

Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems

Ostberg

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2368-7015

¹ Lucht

¹ ² Schaphoff

¹ Gerten

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6214-6991

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain 1: Earth System Analysis, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam, Germany

Dept. of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany

08 10 2013

4 2 347 357

2013

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/

This article is available from https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/4/347/2013/esd-4-347-2013.html

The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/4/347/2013/esd-4-347-2013.pdf

Globally increasing temperatures are likely to have impacts on terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems that are difficult to manage. Quantifying impacts worldwide and systematically as a function of global warming is fundamental to substantiating the discussion on climate mitigation targets and adaptation planning. Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. These are processed by a biogeochemical model (LPJmL) to derive an aggregated metric of simultaneous biogeochemical and structural shifts in land surface properties which we interpret as a proxy for the risk of shifts and possibly disruptions in ecosystems. Our results show a substantial risk of climate change to transform terrestrial ecosystems profoundly. Nearly no area of the world is free from such risk, unless strong mitigation limits global warming to around 2 degrees above preindustrial level. Even then, our simulations for most climate models agree that up to one-fifth of the land surface may experience at least moderate ecosystem change, primarily at high latitudes and high altitudes. If countries fulfil their current emissions reduction pledges, resulting in roughly 3.5 K of warming, this area expands to cover half the land surface, including the majority of tropical forests and savannas and the boreal zone. Due to differences in regional patterns of climate change, the area potentially at risk of major ecosystem change considering all climate models is up to 2.5 times as large as for a single model.

European Commission

ERMITAGE - Enhancing Robustness and Model Integration for The Assessment of Global Environmental Change (265170)

References 1

Anderson, R. C., Fralish, J. S., and Baskin, J. M.: Introduction, in: Savanna, Barrens, and Rock Outcrop Plant Communities of North America, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1–6, 1999.

Blois, J. L., Williams, J. W., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Jackson, S. T., and Ferrier, S.: Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 9374–9379, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220228110">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1220228110</a>, 2013.

Chapin, F. S., Matson, P. A., and Vitousek, P. M.: Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology, 2nd Edn., Springer, New York, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9504-9">https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9504-9</a>, 2011.

Collatz, G., Ribas-Carbo, M., and Berry, J.: Coupled Photosynthesis-Stomatal Conductance Model for Leaves of C4 Plants, Aust. J. Plant Physiol., 19, 519–538, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/PP9920519">https://doi.org/10.1071/PP9920519</a>, 1992.

Cramer, W., Bondeau, A., Woodward, F. I., Prentice, I. C., Betts, R. A., Brovkin, V., Cox, P. M., Fisher, V., Foley, J. A., Friend, A. D., Kucharik, C., Lomas, M. R., Ramankutty, N., Sitch, S., Smith, B., White, A., and Young-Molling, C.: Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models, Global Change Biol., 7, 357–373, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x">https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2001.00383.x</a>, 2001.

Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V., and Teng, H.: Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Clim. Dynam., 38, 527–546, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0977-x</a>, 2010.

Farquhar, G. D., Caemmerer, S., and Berry, J. A.: A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species, Planta, 149, 78–90, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231">https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00386231</a>, 1980.

Gerten, D., Schaphoff, S., Haberlandt, U., Lucht, W., and Sitch, S.: Terrestrial vegetation and water balance – hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model, J. Hydrol., 286, 249–270, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.029">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.09.029</a>, 2004.

Gerten, D., Lucht, W., Ostberg, S., Heinke, J., Kowarsch, M., Kreft, H., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Rastgooy, J., Warren, R., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Asynchronous exposure to global warming: freshwater resources and terrestrial ecosystems, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034032, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032">https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034032</a>, 2013.

Harris, I., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., and Lister, D. H.: Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset, Int. J. Climatol., <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711">https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3711</a>, online first, 2013.

Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R.: The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change, Clim. Dynam., 37, 407–418, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6">https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6</a>, 2010.

Heinke, J., Ostberg, S., Schaphoff, S., Frieler, K., Müller, C., Gerten, D., Meinshausen, M., and Lucht, W.: A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 5, 3533–3572, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-5-3533-2012">https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-5-3533-2012</a>, 2012.

Heyder, U., Schaphoff, S., Gerten, D., and Lucht, W.: Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 034036, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034036">https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034036</a>, 2011.

Hickler, T., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Mjöfors, K., Miller, P., Arneth, A., and Sykes, M. T.: CO2 fertilization in temperate FACE experiments not representative of boreal and tropical forests, Global Change Biol., 14, 1531–1542, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01598.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01598.x</a>, 2008.

Holling, C. S.: Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems, Ecosystems, 4, 390–405, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0101-5">https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0101-5</a>, 2001.

Hooper, D. U., Chapin, F. S., Ewel, J. J., Hector, A., Inchausti, P., Lavorel, S., Lawton, J. H., Lodge, D. M., Loreau, M., Naeem, S., Schmid, B., Setälä, H., Symstad, A. J., Vandermeer, J., and Wardle, D. A.: Effects of Biodiversity on Ecosystem Functioning: A Consensus of Current Knowledge, Ecol. Monogr., 75, 3–35, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/04-0922">https://doi.org/10.1890/04-0922</a>, 2005.

Huntingford, C. and Cox, P. M.: An analogue model to derive additional climate change scenarios from existing GCM simulations, Clim. Dynam., 16, 575–586, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003820000067">https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820000067</a>, 2000.

IPCC: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.

Leemans, R. and Eickhout, B.: Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change, Global Environ. Change, 14, 219–228, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.009">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.009</a>, 2004.

Lloyd, A. H.: Ecological histories from Alaskan tree lines provide insight into future change, Ecology, 86, 1687–1695, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/03-0786">https://doi.org/10.1890/03-0786</a>, 2005.

Lotze-Campen, H., Popp, A., Beringer, T., Müller, C., Bondeau, A., Rost, S., and Lucht, W.: Scenarios of global bioenergy production: The trade-offs between agricultural expansion, intensification and trade, Ecol. Model., 221, 2188–2196, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.10.002</a>, 2010.

Meehl, G. A., Covey, C., Taylor, K. E., Delworth, T., Stouffer, R. J., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., and Mitchell, J. F. B.: The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel Dataset: A New Era in Climate Change Research, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 1383–1394, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383">https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383</a>, 2007.

Meinshausen, M., Raper, S. C. B., and Wigley, T. M. L.: Emulating coupled atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 – Part 1: Model description and calibration, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 1417–1456, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011">https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-1417-2011</a>, 2011.

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis, available at: <a href="http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Synthesis.html">http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/Synthesis.html</a>, Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2005.

Mooney, H., Larigauderie, A., Cesario, M., Elmquist, T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Lavorel, S., Mace, G. M., Palmer, M., Scholes, R., and Yahara, T.: Biodiversity, climate change, and ecosystem services, Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 1, 46–54, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.006">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.07.006</a>, 2009.

Murray, S. J., Watson, I. M., and Prentice, I. C.: The use of dynamic global vegetation models for simulating hydrology and the potential integration of satellite observations, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 37, 63–97, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0309133312460072">https://doi.org/10.1177/0309133312460072</a>, 2012.

New, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: Representing Twentieth-Century Space-Time Climate Variability, Part II: Development of 1901–96 Monthly Grids of Terrestrial Surface Climate, J. Climate, 13, 2217–2238, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2">https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<2217:RTCSTC>2.0.CO;2</a>, 2000.

Parmesan, C.: Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. S., 37, 637–669, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100">https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100</a>, 2006.

Piontek, F., Müller, C., Pugh, T. A. M., Clark, D., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Colón-González, F. J., Flörke, M., Folberth, C., Franssen, W., Frieler, K., Friend, A. D., Goslin, S. N., Hemming, D., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lomas, M., Masaki, Y., Mengel, M., Morse, A., Neumann, K., Nishina, K., Ostberg, S., Pavlick, R., Ruane, A. C., Schewe, J., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Tessler, Z., Tompkins, A. M., Warszawski, L., Wisser, D., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: Leaving the world as we know it: Hotspots of global climate change impacts, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, in press, 2013.

Ripl, W.: Water: the bloodstream of the biosphere, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 358, 1921–1934, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1378">https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2003.1378</a>, 2003.

Rogelj, J., Nabel, J., Chen, C., Hare, W., Markmann, K., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Macey, K., and Höhne, N.: Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry, Nature, 464, 1126–1128, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/4641126a">https://doi.org/10.1038/4641126a</a>, 2010.

Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., and Knutti, R.: Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 248–253, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1385">https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1385</a>, 2012.

Rudolf, B., Becker, A., Schneider, U., Meyer-Christoffer, A., and Ziese, M.: GPCC Status Report December 2010 (New gridded global data by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC)), Tech. Rep., DWD/GPCC, Offenbach/Main, Germany, 2010.

Scholze, M., Knorr, W., Arnell, N. W., and Prentice, I. C.: A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 13116–13120, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601816103">https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0601816103</a>, 2006.

Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., Thonicke, K., and Venevsky, S.: Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model, Global Change Biol., 9, 161–185, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x">https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x</a>, 2003.

Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Gedney, N., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M., Piao, S. L., Betts, R., Ciais, P., Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C. D., Prentice, I. C., and Woodward, F. I.: Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), Global Change Biol., 14, 2015–2039, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x">https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x</a>, 2008.

Sykes, M. T., Prentice, I. C., and Laarif, F.: Quantifying the impact of global climate change on potential natural vegetation, Climatic Change, 41, 37–52, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005435831549">https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005435831549</a>, 1999.

UNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, <a href="http://unfccc.int/key_documents/the_convention/items/2853.php">http://unfccc.int/key_documents/the_convention/items/2853.php</a> (last access: 15 May 2013), 1992.

UNFCCC – Conference of the Parties (COP): Decision 1/CP.16 The Cancun Agreements: Outcome of the work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention, available at: <a href="http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf">http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2010/cop16/eng/07a01.pdf</a>, last access: 15 May 2013, 2–31, 2011.

van Vuuren, D. P., Isaac, M., den Elzen, M. G., Stehfest, E., and van Vliet, J.: Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective, Energy J., 31, 165–191, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7">https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7</a>, 2010.

Walker, D. A., Epstein, H. E., Raynolds, M. K., Kuss, P., Kopecky, M. A., Frost, G. V., Daniëls, F. J. A., Leibman, M. O., Moskalenko, N. G., Matyshak, G. V., Khitun, O. V., Khomutov, A. V., Forbes, B. C., Bhatt, U. S., Kade, A. N., Vonlanthen, C. M., and Tichý, L.: Environment, vegetation and greenness (NDVI) along the North America and Eurasia Arctic transects, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 015504, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015504">https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015504</a>, 2012.

Warszawski, L., Friend, A., Ostberg, S., Frieler, K., Lucht, W., Schaphoff, S., Beerling, D., Cadule, P., Ciais, P., Clark, D. B., Kahana, R., Ito, A., Keribin, R., Kleidon, A., Lomas, M., Nishina, K., Pavlick, R., Rademacher, T. T., Piontek, F., Schewe, J., Serdeczny, O., Buechner, M., and Schellnhuber, H. J.: A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shift under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., accepted, 2013.

Williams, J. W. and Jackson, S. T.: Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises, Front. Ecol. Environ., 5, 475–482, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/070037">https://doi.org/10.1890/070037</a>, 2007.

Woodward, F. I., Lomas, M. R., and Kelly, C. K.: Global climate and the distribution of plant biomes, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. B, 359, 1465–1476, <a href="http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1525">https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2004.1525</a>, 2004.